Here's a study from Cisco forecasting 26% worldwide compound annual
growth in IP traffic through 2022, and 21% for North America:
https://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/white-paper-c11-741490.html#_Toc532256789
I'm currently seeing 3mbps on average per FTTH household at peak traffic
time. Chuck was saying 4 earlier....so we're in the same ballpark.
Allow at least a gig of overhead so your gig customer can get a gig when
he actually wants/needs it.
We've been around 25% or so CAGR on bandwidth for a long time, but it
varies on individual years from 15% to 100%. I think it was a year in
the early 2010's where we had the 100%.
-Adam
On 8/8/2019 9:23 PM, Chris Fabien wrote:
Mark, I'm working on a grant application and they are wanting to see
proof (and a PE stamp) on the design that it will meet performance
requirements for X years. I'm very comfortable with GPON at a 32 split
or less being fine for probably at least 8+ years. Just was asking if
there is an industry standard way of calculating this or if everyone
doesn't worry about it. I suppose it would be much more relevant if we
were proposing a VDSL system instead of FTTH.
On Thu, Aug 8, 2019 at 8:36 PM Mark - Myakka Technologies
<[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
Chris,
Does it really matter? If you are AE you get 1GB per customer
dedicated. Not too hard or expensive to to bump that to 10GB per
customer dedicated. GPON does 2.5Gbps per pon usually shared by
32 customers. New 10 Gbps PON will do 10 per pon or I've even
heard that they can do 40Gbps per pon using different wave lengths.
Our system has been up and running for 6+ years. I've had to
upgrade switches and routers. Even had to upgrade to sfp+ uplink
cards on one of my fiber systems. Haven't had to touch GPON cards
or customer ONT's. In my system I see the 2.5Gbps PON lasting for
many many years unless something drastic happens.
--
Best regards,
Mark mailto:[email protected]
Myakka Technologies, Inc.
www.Myakka.com <http://www.Myakka.com>
------
Thursday, August 8, 2019, 6:34:06 PM, you wrote:
Is there any standard or common rule of thumb to design for
future usage when designing a FTTH deployment? As in, we estimate
average usage per sub to be 2Mbps now and increase by 40% per
year. The intent being to certify that your design will meet
demand for say 10 years.
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