Maybe the trend is accurate, but I don’t think you can do network planning based on GB/mo because what matters is peak traffic levels. It used to be peak traffic was Monday morning when everyone got to work and opened their email. Now it’s 8-9pm when everyone is streaming video.
The other factor is video streams (and to a certain extent software downloads) use more bandwidth if you have a faster connection. People are not cranking up the video quality dial from 480 to 720 to 1080 to 2160, they may not even appreciate the extra pixels they are seeing. It just happens automagically because their connection allows it. Perhaps this doesn’t matter because monthly data usage and peak bandwidth are correlated. Same reason mobile network operators charge by gigabytes per month, it’s easier to track and the people who use the most data probably are the heaviest users at peak times. Kind of unfair to people who game, watch TV, or download software in the middle of the night. But that’s why the satellite Internet guys give you “bonus bytes” in the middle of the night. I am still amazed that the FTTH providers here report customers use about the same data usage per customer as we see on our bandwidth constrained WISP network. If I could give every customer gigabit or even 100 Mbps, a lot of their video streams would automagically jump to 20 Mbps as their kids watch My Little Pony in 4K UHD on their iPads. Of course everyone in the house has their own video stream going on their own device. No more whole family sitting in front of the living room TV watching the same show. Even the kids have their own iPad and watch different cartoons. From: AF <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Adam Moffett Sent: Friday, August 9, 2019 8:02 AM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Future FTTH bandwidth usage standard Here's a study from Cisco forecasting 26% worldwide compound annual growth in IP traffic through 2022, and 21% for North America: https://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/white-paper-c11-741490.html#_Toc532256789 I'm currently seeing 3mbps on average per FTTH household at peak traffic time. Chuck was saying 4 earlier....so we're in the same ballpark. Allow at least a gig of overhead so your gig customer can get a gig when he actually wants/needs it. We've been around 25% or so CAGR on bandwidth for a long time, but it varies on individual years from 15% to 100%. I think it was a year in the early 2010's where we had the 100%. -Adam On 8/8/2019 9:23 PM, Chris Fabien wrote: Mark, I'm working on a grant application and they are wanting to see proof (and a PE stamp) on the design that it will meet performance requirements for X years. I'm very comfortable with GPON at a 32 split or less being fine for probably at least 8+ years. Just was asking if there is an industry standard way of calculating this or if everyone doesn't worry about it. I suppose it would be much more relevant if we were proposing a VDSL system instead of FTTH. On Thu, Aug 8, 2019 at 8:36 PM Mark - Myakka Technologies <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > wrote: Chris, Does it really matter? If you are AE you get 1GB per customer dedicated. Not too hard or expensive to to bump that to 10GB per customer dedicated. GPON does 2.5Gbps per pon usually shared by 32 customers. New 10 Gbps PON will do 10 per pon or I've even heard that they can do 40Gbps per pon using different wave lengths. Our system has been up and running for 6+ years. I've had to upgrade switches and routers. Even had to upgrade to sfp+ uplink cards on one of my fiber systems. Haven't had to touch GPON cards or customer ONT's. In my system I see the 2.5Gbps PON lasting for many many years unless something drastic happens. -- Best regards, Mark <mailto:[email protected]> mailto:[email protected] Myakka Technologies, Inc. <http://www.Myakka.com> www.Myakka.com ------ Thursday, August 8, 2019, 6:34:06 PM, you wrote: Is there any standard or common rule of thumb to design for future usage when designing a FTTH deployment? As in, we estimate average usage per sub to be 2Mbps now and increase by 40% per year. The intent being to certify that your design will meet demand for say 10 years. -- AF mailing list [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
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