Re: [AFMUG] potential FTTH build

[Bruce Robertson]

Oh, sorry, we were agreeing.  I misread.  You have a good point... 
fortunately even 30 years from now I probably won't care, so it'll be my 
heirs' problem.  :-)

On 05/03/2016 03:45 PM, Eric Kuhnke wrote:
Absolutely - I meant on a timescale of 50+ years, we simply can't 
imagine what electronics might be available in 50+ years. From a raw 
bandwidth perspective and basic parameters like dB loss/km and 
frequencies available from 1270 to 1610nm, I can't see any reason why 
a two strand active-E singlemode deployment today couldn't work with 
new electronics 100 years from now.

For example if the standard residential active-E CPE is 200Gbps full 
duplex in a 16QAM modulated coherent signal in 25 years from now.

But I wonder if we will get to a situation where today's state of the 
art fiber is as obsolete as the very earliest singlemode cables laid 
in the US northeast in the early 80s, which now require all sorts of 
special funky electronics, dispersion compensation and additional 3R 
regen hardware to function correctly.

There's a number of older submarine fiber cables that have been taken 
out of service because the subsea repeaters can't be effectively used 
for anything better than, say, 40 wavelengths x OC-12 or OC-48 per 
wavelength, which is a tiny amount of capacity in the modern era.

http://www.jeffhecht.com/chron.html




On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 3:37 PM, Bruce Robertson <br...@pooh.com 
<mailto:br...@pooh.com>> wrote:

    You can always change the electronics.  It's only glass - lots of
    ways to light it up.  Changing the electronics is the cheap part.


    On 5/3/16 3:34 PM, Eric Kuhnke wrote:
    I don't disagree with you but I do wonder what the ultimate life
    of modern singlemode fiber (G.652.D) is, assuming it's not
    physically damaged. Could be more than 100 years?

    The oldest outside plant fiber that's still currently in use is,
    as far as I know, some of the 9/125 that was installed between
    Boston and New York in the early 1980s.  But that stuff is very
    different from even a modern singlemode from the dotcom 1.0 boom
    times around 1998/1999. A significant amount of the
    MFN/Abovenet/360/Zayo fiber in Seattle dates from that time,
    right around the year 2000, and there's no problem using it with
    modern DWDM systems.



    On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 3:28 PM, Bruce Robertson <br...@pooh.com
    <mailto:br...@pooh.com>> wrote:

        That's a nice developer!  By them lots of drinks and steak
        dinners.  If you don't have the $150-$200k handy, beg, borrow
        or steal it. Preferably not borrow... that hurts your return
        for the term of the loan.  But it's still worth it for an
        asset that will be performing 100 years from now.

        On 5/3/16 3:23 PM, Sean Heskett wrote:
        As for ROI the developer wants to give us an exclusive right
        and not put in copper for phone or TV ;) The take rate
        should be pretty high because their other option will be our
        wireless service.

        Sean


        On Tuesday, May 3, 2016, Chuck McCown <ch...@wbmfg.com
        <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:

            You will probably get 80% if you are the best value.
            And you don’t the full costs for homes that don’t take
            the service.  No CPE, no enclosure, no drop, no sfp.
            Say $2500/customer.
            Say you clear $40/month.
            40*12=480
            480/2500 = 19.2%  return from day one forever.
            What kind of mutual fund will give you a return like that?
            *From:* Eric Kuhnke
            *Sent:* Tuesday, May 03, 2016 3:10 PM
            *To:* af@afmug.com <mailto:af@afmug.com>
            *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] potential FTTH build
            That math assumes an immediate 100% takeup rate...
            On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 2:04 PM, Josh Luthman
            <j...@imaginenetworksllc.com
            <mailto:j...@imaginenetworksllc.com>> wrote:

                1630/65 = 25
                Internet isn't going away, it's like water and
                power.  The next 25 months and the 25 months after
                that...

                Josh Luthman
                Office: 937-552-2340
                Direct: 937-552-2343
                1100 Wayne St
                Suite 1337
                Troy, OH 45373

                On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 5:01 PM, Eric Kuhnke
                <eric.kuh...@gmail.com
                <mailto:eric.kuh...@gmail.com>> wrote:

                    I don't see how the math works (at $150k and 92
                    homes) if the cost per unit served is $1630 per
                    house. And your initial penetration rate will be
                    far, far less than 100% of homes for monthly
                    services. Even after 3-4 years a significant
                    percentage may never sign up. Where's the ROI?

                    On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 11:49 AM, Chuck McCown
                    <ch...@wbmfg.com <mailto:ch...@wbmfg.com>> wrote:

                        Figure one handhole per 2 homes. So 46
                        handholes.
                        1.25” between all handholes.
                        .75” duct from each handhole to each
                        dwelling for drops.
                        You can run 144 count fiber for spares.
                        Drop down to 96 or 48 count as it tapers
                        going down the runs.
                        You will need a cabinet with a distribution
                        panel, electronics, batteries.
                        It will need power.
                        To go cheap, use a large cisco router with
                        SFPs ports and SFP to each dwelling with a
                        media converter at the ends.
                        Or put in Calix.  You can go GPON or
                        Active.  With something this small, I would
                        do Active.
                        You will have $150 to $200K in before you
                        are done.
                        *From:* Sean Heskett
                        *Sent:* Tuesday, May 03, 2016 12:38 PM
                        *To:* af@afmug.com <mailto:af@afmug.com> ;
                        memb...@wispa.org
                        *Subject:* [AFMUG] potential FTTH build
                        Hello,
                        We are in talks with a developer who is
                        planning a subdivision on a ~50 acre lot for
                        92 homes and he wants us to deliver FTTH. 
                        Is there anyone on this list who would like
                        to consult with us so that we can get the
                        plan done right from the get go?  The
                        developer will be doing all the trenching
                        and conduit etc., we will be doing all the
                        electronics and customer service etc.
                        Best regards,
                        Sean





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