This is easily solved by always running 2 ducts instead of one, or microducting. On May 3, 2016 5:45 PM, "Eric Kuhnke" <[email protected]> wrote:
> Absolutely - I meant on a timescale of 50+ years, we simply can't imagine > what electronics might be available in 50+ years. From a raw bandwidth > perspective and basic parameters like dB loss/km and frequencies available > from 1270 to 1610nm, I can't see any reason why a two strand active-E > singlemode deployment today couldn't work with new electronics 100 years > from now. > > For example if the standard residential active-E CPE is 200Gbps full > duplex in a 16QAM modulated coherent signal in 25 years from now. > > But I wonder if we will get to a situation where today's state of the art > fiber is as obsolete as the very earliest singlemode cables laid in the US > northeast in the early 80s, which now require all sorts of special funky > electronics, dispersion compensation and additional 3R regen hardware to > function correctly. > > There's a number of older submarine fiber cables that have been taken out > of service because the subsea repeaters can't be effectively used for > anything better than, say, 40 wavelengths x OC-12 or OC-48 per wavelength, > which is a tiny amount of capacity in the modern era. > > http://www.jeffhecht.com/chron.html > > > > > On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 3:37 PM, Bruce Robertson <[email protected]> wrote: > >> You can always change the electronics. It's only glass - lots of ways to >> light it up. Changing the electronics is the cheap part. >> >> On 5/3/16 3:34 PM, Eric Kuhnke wrote: >> >> I don't disagree with you but I do wonder what the ultimate life of >> modern singlemode fiber (G.652.D) is, assuming it's not physically damaged. >> Could be more than 100 years? >> >> The oldest outside plant fiber that's still currently in use is, as far >> as I know, some of the 9/125 that was installed between Boston and New York >> in the early 1980s. But that stuff is very different from even a modern >> singlemode from the dotcom 1.0 boom times around 1998/1999. A significant >> amount of the MFN/Abovenet/360/Zayo fiber in Seattle dates from that time, >> right around the year 2000, and there's no problem using it with modern >> DWDM systems. >> >> >> >> On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 3:28 PM, Bruce Robertson <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> That's a nice developer! By them lots of drinks and steak dinners. If >>> you don't have the $150-$200k handy, beg, borrow or steal it. Preferably >>> not borrow... that hurts your return for the term of the loan. But it's >>> still worth it for an asset that will be performing 100 years from now. >>> >>> On 5/3/16 3:23 PM, Sean Heskett wrote: >>> >>> As for ROI the developer wants to give us an exclusive right and not put >>> in copper for phone or TV ;) The take rate should be pretty high because >>> their other option will be our wireless service. >>> >>> Sean >>> >>> >>> On Tuesday, May 3, 2016, Chuck McCown < <[email protected]>[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>>> You will probably get 80% if you are the best value. >>>> And you don’t the full costs for homes that don’t take the service. No >>>> CPE, no enclosure, no drop, no sfp. >>>> >>>> Say $2500/customer. >>>> >>>> Say you clear $40/month. >>>> >>>> 40*12=480 >>>> 480/2500 = 19.2% return from day one forever. >>>> >>>> What kind of mutual fund will give you a return like that? >>>> >>>> *From:* Eric Kuhnke >>>> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 03, 2016 3:10 PM >>>> *To:* [email protected] >>>> *Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] potential FTTH build >>>> >>>> That math assumes an immediate 100% takeup rate... >>>> >>>> On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 2:04 PM, Josh Luthman < >>>> [email protected]> wrote: >>>> >>>>> 1630/65 = 25 >>>>> >>>>> Internet isn't going away, it's like water and power. The next 25 >>>>> months and the 25 months after that... >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Josh Luthman >>>>> Office: 937-552-2340 >>>>> Direct: 937-552-2343 >>>>> 1100 Wayne St >>>>> Suite 1337 >>>>> Troy, OH 45373 >>>>> >>>>> On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 5:01 PM, Eric Kuhnke <[email protected]> >>>>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> I don't see how the math works (at $150k and 92 homes) if the cost >>>>>> per unit served is $1630 per house. And your initial penetration rate >>>>>> will >>>>>> be far, far less than 100% of homes for monthly services. Even after 3-4 >>>>>> years a significant percentage may never sign up. Where's the ROI? >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> On Tue, May 3, 2016 at 11:49 AM, Chuck McCown <[email protected]> >>>>>> wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> Figure one handhole per 2 homes. So 46 handholes. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> 1.25” between all handholes. >>>>>>> .75” duct from each handhole to each dwelling for drops. >>>>>>> You can run 144 count fiber for spares. >>>>>>> Drop down to 96 or 48 count as it tapers going down the runs. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> You will need a cabinet with a distribution panel, electronics, >>>>>>> batteries. >>>>>>> It will need power. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> To go cheap, use a large cisco router with SFPs ports and SFP to >>>>>>> each dwelling with a media converter at the ends. >>>>>>> Or put in Calix. You can go GPON or Active. With something this >>>>>>> small, I would do Active. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> You will have $150 to $200K in before you are done. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> *From:* Sean Heskett >>>>>>> *Sent:* Tuesday, May 03, 2016 12:38 PM >>>>>>> *To:* [email protected] ; [email protected] >>>>>>> *Subject:* [AFMUG] potential FTTH build >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Hello, >>>>>>> >>>>>>> We are in talks with a developer who is planning a subdivision on a >>>>>>> ~50 acre lot for 92 homes and he wants us to deliver FTTH. Is there >>>>>>> anyone >>>>>>> on this list who would like to consult with us so that we can get the >>>>>>> plan >>>>>>> done right from the get go? The developer will be doing all the >>>>>>> trenching >>>>>>> and conduit etc., we will be doing all the electronics and customer >>>>>>> service >>>>>>> etc. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Best regards, >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Sean >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >> !DSPAM:2,5729279660848397412542! >> >> >> >
