The numbers are much worse than I thought. Republicans are slightly over 1/4 of the overall electorate. Assuming maybe 60% of those actually voted in the primaries, that means something like 15.6% of the electorate chose the Republican nominee. Taking it a step further, only 7.8% (half of 15.6%) decided who the Republican nominee is. Sounds like the tail wagging the dog...

FWIW, Democrats are only 29% of the overall electorate. Only a bit more people involved.

The number that should wake everyone up is that now between 40 and 42 percent identify as independent.

If I were a politician, the independents would be who I would be targeting.


On 10/16/2016 5:09 PM, Bill Prince wrote:

I think there were actually 18 republican candidates. In the early going the style of DT pretty much sucked the oxygen out of the room. I think a lot of it was the press' focus on him, but in the end, it was really the republican voters that made the decision.

Republicans are well under half of the overall voter population. My personal theory was that too many rationally-minded republicans decided to sit out the primaries, or else they were legitimately split on "all the rest".

That's too bad, because in the end, they could have fixed the problem by only having 3 or at most, 6 candidates. If that had been the case, I think DT would not have gone past the first 5 primaries. DT did not get a majority in any of the early primaries; a classic case of split votes.


On 10/16/2016 4:50 PM, CBB - Jay Fuller wrote:
One thing to remember during all of this. People voted in 50 states. Very different states. There were, at times, 10 other candidates on the republican side - - and admitingly, one socialist on the other side. Those 50 states voted Trump in as the republican nominee. There were several other choices. Trump is the one the majority voted in.
Don't forget that come Nov 8.

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