There is no way China let's North Korea affect their economy. They will take
Kim out long before that happens.
The only reason the Chinese Communist Party stays in power is because of its
economy. And that control only works if growth is at 7% or more. If that
growth stagnates or their economy gets worse, their power erodes quickly.
The Chinese like having North Korea as a buffer on their border. They know if
there is a war, South Korea will take it over and they lose that buffer. And
if there is a war, they are going to be blamed and the U.S. is going to be far
more than just pissed off over this. Given their 2 choices, I say they take
Kim out before that happens.
Rory
-----Original Message-----
From: Af [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Josh Reynolds
Sent: Monday, September 4, 2017 10:03 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] North Korea, China, sanctions, and wireless radios...
We actually have a great deal of bargaining power in all this.
No, that's folly.
It's economic M.A.D. It would crash both the US and Chinese economies... would
also impact Taiwan / HK.
As far as tech stuff, we'd be fucked for a few years. China has 85-95% of the
world's rare earth mining capacity used in things we use every day, from
watches, phones, cars, drones, military equipment, medical equipment, things
NASA depends on, etc. They have roughly 1/3rd of the world's rare earth
deposits, but there is no production really spun up anywhere else. We have a
place in California, and friends in Australia, but those facilities are closed
due to the low Chinese prices.
If you thought the crashes of 2000/2008 were bad, imagine 25-35% unemployment
that would largely not be soaked up by newly opened US facilities due to the
cost of manufacturing here.
On Mon, Sep 4, 2017 at 11:44 AM, Steve Jones <[email protected]> wrote:
Foxconn is coming here (IPhone)
Taiwan is hoping this goes down, their sovereignty is on the table
Philippines and Malaysia used to produce, probably a lot of shuttered
factories we haven't closed the door on cuba yet There is no shortage
of slave labor nations, china knows this.
When you rely on the spoils of slaver and servitude such as we do,
its best to spread the risk around, and that's what we are poised to
do with this. It will hurt in the wallet for a time, but in the end,
we would be better, critical components will make their way back to
silicon valley, the rest of the stuff will spread out.
We actually have a great deal of bargaining power in all this.
On Mon, Sep 4, 2017 at 11:25 AM, Josh Reynolds <[email protected]> wrote:
The short version of this, is that for the first time since April
30th, 1975 (end of Vietnam War) the American people might actually
realize we are at war. They've largely been excluded from that fact
for almost 17 years now. This however, would be a much more
conventional battle. We are REALLY good at those, or at least we
were at one time.
The alternative is that North Korean continues their program to
increase their range, accuracy, explosive potential, and eventually
a multi-warhead (MIRV) situation. There have been some links in the
past between NK and Iran, so if NK ends up being successful, Iran
would likely be quick to follow.
None of this is any good.
On Mon, Sep 4, 2017 at 10:56 AM, Kurt Fankhauser
<[email protected]> wrote:
I'm starting to get worried if the US tries to punish China for
North Korea what does this mean for wireless radios that are made
in China? Will we not be able to import them anymore? We rely quite
a bit on products made in China for our everyday lives. I use alot
of Ubiquiti products and if i can no longer get those my WISP
operations would be severely crippled...
