On 12/6/18 1:47 PM, Noureddine IDBOUFKER via AfrIPv6-Discuss wrote:
Sure there are many opportunities behind Transition to IPv6 but
unfortunately, for African Operators in each country, there is also a
risk. Every day elapsed before this transition moves them towards a
very risky situation. I talk about Business and also technical risks.
Unfortunately, the majority of operators has an urgency mindset.
I am really convinced that in order to encourage them to transit to
IPv6, African Communities has to focus on risks and the urgency aspect
of the transition. For example leading studies in order to produce a
kind of SWOT Matrix, adapted to the African context, establishing
Strengths, Weaknesses, Threats and Opportunities.
Yes, I see your point.
I wonder, how urgent does IPv4 runout have to be for the urgency to be a
major risk?
(Short version: if you haven't started IPv6 already, you will not be
able to add new users by mid-2020).
Using http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html I think we will reach
Exhaustion Phase 2 in 6-8 months. Let's say July 2019. That means that
everyone who has received IPv4 addresses since this past July has
received their last Phase 1 allocation.
Under current policy as I understand it, starting next July, networks
will only get up to a /22 per application (or less, if a /23 or /24 will
last them 8 months). If they use that /22, they can get another, and
another, but whoever does the IP management work will be busy submitting
applications.
The Phase 2 policy might slow down consumption a little bit. Say the
last /11 will run out a year later, in June 2020.
As I see it, every wireline ISP in Africa that is not already using IPv6
will turn on their last new customer in 18 months. It is too late to
avoid this: it will take at least two years to adopt IPv6. The only
options they will have left are CGN or buying addresses; those will add
conservatively US$10-40 cost per user.
Mobile networks may be able to last a few months longer, depending on
their rate of growth and the ratio of users to IPv4 addresses.
The network with a two-year plan will be the only network left in two years.
Please, convince me I'm wrong.
Lee
Regards
-----------------------------------------------
Noureddine IDBOUFKER
https://www.linkedin.com/in/idboufkernoureddine/
Le jeudi 6 décembre 2018 à 15:51:06 UTC+1, Lee Howard
<[email protected]> a écrit :
On 12/6/18 5:22 AM, Noureddine IDBOUFKER via AfrIPv6-Discuss wrote:
I think that Top management is not enough *aware *of business
opportunities behind IPv6 migration.
Sure IPv6 will give them the opportunity to address a high number of
objects, equipements, services,.... but it is not limited to that.
Top management has to encourage their people to be express their
innovation capabilities in a such a way to contribute to the
developpement of Value Added Services.
Providers who will not propose new competitive service catalogue will
simply die in globalized world. Top management has to know hat IPv6 is
a real pillar of IT governance.
I agree with that. I have several presentations on business reasons
for IPv6, which I imagine overlap with AFRINIC's IPv6 for Executives
training:
* Not running out of addresses, so you can keep adding customers
* Faster [1]
* Because it's faster, Google page rank is higher; more customers
see your web site
* Because it's faster, users spend more time on the page; more ad
revenue
* IPv6 is on by default; may present security risks if not secured
* Use addresses to identify services; easier policy routing, ACLs,
security, troubleshooting, etc.
* New diagnostic tools PDM [rfc8250] and maybe M-PDM
[draft-fear-ippm-mpdm]
* Simpler container networking [2]
* Segment Routing with IPv6: no MPLS/LDP/RSVP-TE/NSH, it's all just
IP. [3]
The last few are cutting-edge developments that are not widely
available yet, but are examples of innovations enabled by IPv6. I
didn't even list "It's not NAT" because you're likely to use some kind
of address sharing to reach legacy IPv4 sites, but that need declines
as others deploy, and it may be cheaper than NAT44.
IPv6 is cool.
Lee
[1] https://stats.labs.apnic.net/v6perf/XB
[2] *https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eF50OxZ5u4o*
*[3] ***https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUN68P6UAn0**
**
Regards
-----------------------------------------------
Noureddine IDBOUFKER
Le jeudi 6 décembre 2018 à 10:57:24 UTC+1, JORDI PALET MARTINEZ via
AfrIPv6-Discuss <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]> a écrit :
Operators are informed, if you speak about “engineers”, the problem
is to inform the CEOs of operator AND the CEOs of important companies
in each country (financial sectors, companies that export or have
relevant web sites, etc.).
I recall ARIN did sent a letter to them (in their region) a few years
ago.
Regards,
Jordi
*De: *Pascal ANDRIANISA <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]>
*Responder a: *IPv6 in Africa Discussions
<[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected]>
*Fecha: *jueves, 6 de diciembre de 2018, 10:47
*Para: *IPv6 in Africa Discussions <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]>
*Asunto: *Re: [AfrIPv6-Discuss] Finding solutions to things that stop
people moving to IPv6
Dear All, I think there is also another solution which is to inform
the operators in each country of the situation because if only the
members who will apply IPv6 it will not be possible to use it
optimally. I do not know if a provision to that effect has already
been taken but I think that all the members are aware of the
situation. Best regard,
*Pascal*Heriliva ANDRIANISA Webmaster i RENALA *R*esearch and *E*ducation
*N*etwork for *A*cademic and *L*earning *A*ctivities -
http://www.irenala.edu.mg/ Porte 201 - Ministère de l'Enseignement
Supérieur et de la Recherche Scientifique - Fiadanana_GSM _:+261 (0) 32 46 680 29 | +261 (0) 34 30 680 29
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*De: *"Mukom Akong T." <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]> *À: *"IPv6 in Africa"
<[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected]>
*Envoyé: *Jeudi 6 Décembre 2018 06:41:29 *Objet: *Re:
[AfrIPv6-Discuss] Finding solutions to things that stop people moving
to IPv6
> > Consumers are unaware of IPv6, so it's not part of their buying
decision. If something doesn't make consumer buy boxes, vendors don't
do it. I do not think consumer education about IP is a good idea.
Neither do I. Consumers don't DIRECTLY care about IP (whether v4 or
v6). But they do care about other features that may be only possible
(or easier, or cheaper) with v6. This is one place where I see the
role of governments. In the interest of national development, just
ban importation and sale of legacy equipment. Similar to what is
already done with type approval in telecommunications today. > ISPs
buying cheap boxes and not paying anything for support, so they can't
get upgrades. > Foreign ISPs dumping volumes of used CPE, which get
resold at deep discounts. I've been screaming about this for years.
Even worse, some of it is going to be "sold" as "next generation
Internet aid or technical corporation") which further cripples IPv6
deployment. > > Something that has worked for some companies is an
"ISP Certified" sticker. CPE vendors could apply to an ISP, and pay
the costs of testing. If the tests complied with the ISP's
requirements, which might include MAP, lw4o6, or 464xlat support, the
vendor is allowed to put a sticker on their box saying, "This device
certified for use with $ISP." There might be a business opportunity
for someone who can set up a really good CPE testing lab, so ISPs
could outsource their testing and certification. In addition, I
believe that with two days of training (regulators and customs) and
the appropriate infrastructure and a PROCESS, we can help a
government implement type approval for IPv6. Any regulator that
wishes to do this should reach out and join the waiting list by
taking the Government IPv6 Readiness Self Assessment at ENGLISH →
https://vox.afrinic.net/465923?lang=en FRENCH →
https://vox.afrinic.net/465923?lang=fr > For years I have been an
IPv6 advocate – and I still am – and I’ve actively deployed and run
IPv6 in production supplying it to the end user, with multiple
percentage point changes in country IPv6 penetration statistics as a
result, but I am fast realizing that if we want IPv6 to grow and
thrive – it’s time we started being a little more open and honest
about the challenges and problems with it – instead of sprouting off
that everyone should just move to it. Let’s acknowledge that IPv6
is critical, we have no option, but it is also deeply flawed, has
major problems, and until start dealing with those – we will see
deployment continue to stutter I agree with the above. The solution
is not just another open "discussion" where people who have not even
started any kind of deployment, or even have a fair idea of what
percentage of equipment might or might not be v6 ready go on an on
about problems they've only heard about. > > Should we have a round
table discussion at AIS? How can we identify and make progress on
resolving issues with IPv6? > Perhaps we can start with a mailing
list thread of SPECIFIC issues people have encountered while
attempting a deployment on this mailing list, then build up to a
webinar or discussion at AIS. There are probably about 400million
users using IPv6 today and growing, someone somewhere has solved
those problems. > The common theme in my answers above is that more
people running IPv6 provides more weight in solving problems. If
everyone would take a couple of hours to do three things, we'd have a
very broad base of common experience to draw from: > > 1. Write an
address plan. Don't worry if it takes several revisions, that's
normal. > > 2. Apply to Afrinic for IPv6 addresses. > > 3. Announce
the IPv6 addresses and route them on your backbone. These are things
that we've helped operators implement in 1 day at our deployathons
(or 6 two hour sessions during helpdesk calls). It's surprising how
many operators need help with their address planning. Which is why
not only do we teach them how to determine how much space they get,
but also how to implement them in an IPAM. For those interested, a
video of a highly attended and rated AFRINIC webinar can be found at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFIVQ_Z9je8&t=542s Step by step
walk-through of address planning best practices and implementation in
an IPAM ---- no maths! > > AFRINIC's training and IPv6 Helpdesk are
great resources. The premise behind the helpdesk is this: We can find
ONE operator a month that's committed to deploying IPv6, we keep
providing targeted training and coaching to move them from one
deployment milestone to another until we get stuck with incompatible
equipment or internal collaboration issues. All it takes is about 4
hours investment per week. If you are interested, make a request at
bit.ly/6deployEN <http://bit.ly/6deployEN> (english)
bit.ly/6deployFR <http://bit.ly/6deployFR> (french) As we do this,
we're also building an tremendous amount of intel on what actually
HOLDS IPv6 deployment back from real operators attempting to deploy
it and so far with over 45 tickets, the evidence indicates that
incompatible equipment is not in the top 5.
We're also realising that that argument from big operators about
"customers aren't asking for it" is not true. We know of large
operators that within 2 months have received explicitly written
requests to enable IPv6 from large corporate customers. You don't
want to see their response :(
If you want to host one of our DEPLOYATHON sessions in your country
- 5% teaching, 95% DOing
- using our Prototype → Validate → Develop → Deploy framework
- enables you hit a measurable deployment milestone within 8 hours
you can apply at: https://vox.afrinic.net/189828?lang=en (or
https://vox.afrinic.net/189828?lang=fr in french)
And for those who are still wondering how ready or not their
organisations are, take our free Organisational IPv6 Readiness
Assessment at https://vox.afrinic.net/651525?lang=en (or
https://vox.afrinic.net/651525?lang=fr in French)
The results might provide pointers where to start the process.
Until next time ..... be EXCELLENT -- Mukom Akong T. LinkedIn:Mukom
| twitter: @perfexcellent
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