On Thu, Jun 14, 2018 at 8:04 PM Mark Nuzz via AGI <agi@agi.topicbox.com> wrote: > > The Singularity analogy was never intended to imply infinite power. Rather it > represents a point at which understanding and predictability breaks down and > becomes impossible.
Agreed. Vinge called it an "event horizon" on our ability to see the future. We observe faster than exponential growth. Global computing power and stored information doubles every 1.5 years, but the doubling period is shorter than a century ago if you consider older technologies like books and adding machines. The problem is there are many super-exponential functions that fit the data. Some have singularities, like 1/t, and some do not, like e^(t^2). Turing predicted in 1950 that a machine would win the imitation game by 2000. Vinge predicted in 1993 that the singularity probably would happen by 2023 but he would be surprised if it was before 2005 or after 2030. Kurzweil is still predicting computers exceeding human brains in the mid 2040s. Global computing power is about 10^22 bits of storage and 10^19 operations per second. The biosphere has 10^37 bits of DNA and computes 10^33 DNA, RNA, and amino acid transcription operations per second. A straightforward naive projection of Moore's Law suggests that technology will surpass DNA based life around 2090. Freitas worked out the physics of self replicating nanotechnology in https://foresight.org/nano/Ecophagy.php Computing by moving atoms instead of electrons is 10^9 times more energy efficient as transistors, but only marginally better than life. Self replicating robots can only be slightly smaller and faster than bacteria. Replacing DNA based life with new technology would be a major but still evolutionary step, not a singularity. The best we could do is build a Dyson sphere at 10,000 AU radius to compute 10^48 operations per second at the Landauer limit near the CMB background temperature of 3K (in 2165 if Moore's law holds). Any further progress will require either interstellar travel or speeding up the sun's energy output, perhaps by dropping a black hole into it. Regardless of what we do, the finiteness of the observable universe must at some point put a stop to Moore's law. -- -- Matt Mahoney, mattmahone...@gmail.com ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T5ada390c367596a4-Mcd8cae2e1e52de5a960b83b5 Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups
