God himself cannot predict the outcome of football. On 8/8/18, Matt Mahoney via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: > Nobody knows how to test for an adult IQ of 250. What is the IQ of your > smart phone? > > Copies of a simulation give you copies of the same prediction. Markets beat > individuals because individuals are different. The PAQ compression > algorithm works on this principle. It averages together many independent > models to predict the next input bit. > > > > On Tue, Aug 7, 2018, 10:16 PM MP via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: > >> Or you could have one AGI with the mental capacity to simulate a mind >> with >> an IQ of 250, then run simulations of those millions of minds one right >> after the other in a serial fashion. I’m sure it’d be smart enough to >> figure out when to stop and make a descision based on the minds it >> serially >> simulates. >> >> My point is, minds beat math. >> >> Sent from ProtonMail Mobile >> >> >> On Tue, Aug 7, 2018 at 9:11 PM, Matt Mahoney via AGI >> <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >> Prediction in sports is big business. Same as betting on stocks and other >> investments. The best predictor is the market price. If there was an >> algorithm that could do better then everyone would use it. You are going >> to >> have equal amounts of wins and losses no matter what. >> >> For AGI to beat the markets it has to be smarter than not just one human >> but millions of humans. >> >> On Tue, Aug 7, 2018, 5:29 PM MP via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> The issue lies in trying to use simple mathematical structures to >>> predict >>> the behavior of the human mind. >>> >>> You need an AGI with the irrationality and flexibility of the human mind >>> to predict their behaviors. >>> >>> Sent from ProtonMail Mobile >>> >>> >>> On Tue, Aug 7, 2018 at 10:48 AM, Dorian Aur via AGI >>> <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>> Predictive algorithms are no better at telling the future, see >>> >>> >>> https://medium.com/@bakhtiyari/artificial-intelligence-failed-in-world-cup-2018-6af10602206a >>> >>> Where is the issue? >>> >>> Dorian >>> >>> *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* >> / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + >> participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + delivery >> options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> Permalink >> <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T63cec70f214bbcf8-M72ba229cbc95f117b53fb4ae> >>
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