How do you know what God can or can't do? > > God himself cannot predict the outcome of football. >> >> On 8/8/18, Matt Mahoney via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: >> > Nobody knows how to test for an adult IQ of 250. What is the IQ of your >> > smart phone? >> > >> > Copies of a simulation give you copies of the same prediction. Markets >> beat >> > individuals because individuals are different. The PAQ compression >> > algorithm works on this principle. It averages together many independent >> > models to predict the next input bit. >> > >> > >> > >> > On Tue, Aug 7, 2018, 10:16 PM MP via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: >> > >> >> Or you could have one AGI with the mental capacity to simulate a mind >> >> with >> >> an IQ of 250, then run simulations of those millions of minds one right >> >> after the other in a serial fashion. I’m sure it’d be smart enough to >> >> figure out when to stop and make a descision based on the minds it >> >> serially >> >> simulates. >> >> >> >> My point is, minds beat math. >> >> >> >> Sent from ProtonMail Mobile >> >> >> >> >> >> On Tue, Aug 7, 2018 at 9:11 PM, Matt Mahoney via AGI >> >> <[email protected]> >> >> wrote: >> >> >> >> Prediction in sports is big business. Same as betting on stocks and >> other >> >> investments. The best predictor is the market price. If there was an >> >> algorithm that could do better then everyone would use it. You are >> going >> >> to >> >> have equal amounts of wins and losses no matter what. >> >> >> >> For AGI to beat the markets it has to be smarter than not just one >> human >> >> but millions of humans. >> >> >> >> On Tue, Aug 7, 2018, 5:29 PM MP via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> >> >>> The issue lies in trying to use simple mathematical structures to >> >>> predict >> >>> the behavior of the human mind. >> >>> >> >>> You need an AGI with the irrationality and flexibility of the human >> mind >> >>> to predict their behaviors. >> >>> >> >>> Sent from ProtonMail Mobile >> >>> >> >>> >> >>> On Tue, Aug 7, 2018 at 10:48 AM, Dorian Aur via AGI >> >>> <[email protected]> >> >>> wrote: >> >>> >> >>> Predictive algorithms are no better at telling the future, see >> >>> >> >>> >> >>> https://medium.com/@bakhtiyari/artificial-intelligence- >> failed-in-world-cup-2018-6af10602206a >> >>> >> >>> Where is the issue? >> >>> >> >>> Dorian >> >>> >> >>> *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/late >> st>* >> >> / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + >> >> participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + delivery >> >> options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> Permalink >> >> <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T63cec70f214bbcf8-M72ba > >
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