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On Wed, Aug 8, 2018 at 10:50 AM, Mike Archbold via AGI <[email protected] > wrote: > God himself cannot predict the outcome of football. > > On 8/8/18, Matt Mahoney via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: > > Nobody knows how to test for an adult IQ of 250. What is the IQ of your > > smart phone? > > > > Copies of a simulation give you copies of the same prediction. Markets > beat > > individuals because individuals are different. The PAQ compression > > algorithm works on this principle. It averages together many independent > > models to predict the next input bit. > > > > > > > > On Tue, Aug 7, 2018, 10:16 PM MP via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: > > > >> Or you could have one AGI with the mental capacity to simulate a mind > >> with > >> an IQ of 250, then run simulations of those millions of minds one right > >> after the other in a serial fashion. I’m sure it’d be smart enough to > >> figure out when to stop and make a descision based on the minds it > >> serially > >> simulates. > >> > >> My point is, minds beat math. > >> > >> Sent from ProtonMail Mobile > >> > >> > >> On Tue, Aug 7, 2018 at 9:11 PM, Matt Mahoney via AGI > >> <[email protected]> > >> wrote: > >> > >> Prediction in sports is big business. Same as betting on stocks and > other > >> investments. The best predictor is the market price. If there was an > >> algorithm that could do better then everyone would use it. You are going > >> to > >> have equal amounts of wins and losses no matter what. > >> > >> For AGI to beat the markets it has to be smarter than not just one human > >> but millions of humans. > >> > >> On Tue, Aug 7, 2018, 5:29 PM MP via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: > >> > >>> The issue lies in trying to use simple mathematical structures to > >>> predict > >>> the behavior of the human mind. > >>> > >>> You need an AGI with the irrationality and flexibility of the human > mind > >>> to predict their behaviors. > >>> > >>> Sent from ProtonMail Mobile > >>> > >>> > >>> On Tue, Aug 7, 2018 at 10:48 AM, Dorian Aur via AGI > >>> <[email protected]> > >>> wrote: > >>> > >>> Predictive algorithms are no better at telling the future, see > >>> > >>> > >>> https://medium.com/@bakhtiyari/artificial- > intelligence-failed-in-world-cup-2018-6af10602206a > >>> > >>> Where is the issue? > >>> > >>> Dorian > >>> > >>> *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest > >* > >> / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > >> participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + delivery > >> options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> Permalink > >> <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T63cec70f214bbcf8- ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T63cec70f214bbcf8-Md013f48e831c101781cd2bde Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
