Here are Manifold's predictions for SORA by the end of 2025. There is a 12% chance they can produce a 20-40 minute video. There is a 77% chance OpenAI will be sued, 30% chance of being banned in at least one EU country. Video will almost certainly be watermarked. https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/what-will-be-true-of-openais-sora-m
I am being generous with Moore's law. It is actually slowing down. Clock speeds stalled in 2010. Transistors are near their physical size limit of a few nanometers, the spacing between N or P dopant atoms in silicon. The only way to reduce power consumption significantly is to compute by moving atoms or molecules instead of electrons. A human brain sized neural network using transistors needs a few thousand GPUs and 1 MW of electricity. The brain uses 20 watts because neurons compute by moving sodium and potassium ions that are 100,000 times slower and heavier than electrons but use 100,000 times less energy. DNA bases and amino acids are on the order of another 100 times slower, heavier, and energy efficient than neurons. Before the earth is overrun by nanobots, we have to transition from transistors to molecular computing. That technology is a long way off. Just using Moore's law to estimate how long, it will take about a century to match the 10^37 bits stored in all the DNA in the biosphere. I know we will get there. Wheels are faster than legs. Jets are faster than birds. The atmospheric carbon cycle is 210 billion tons per year (20% of the biosphere) implying a cycle time of 5 years and a power consumption of 500 TW of solar power (at 4 Kcal/g of carbohydrate) out of 90,000 TW of available sunlight. Global electricity production is only 18 TW but solar cells are already 20-30% efficient. Electric motors are over 90% efficient, compared with 22% for muscle. Near term, advances in AI will come from optimizations like hardware for sparse, low precision vector operations and specialized vision models that include a fovea and eye movements. Video will track your eye movements and leave out details where you are not looking. This will happen in parallel as molecular computing is developed to replace transistors. But that is a long way off. On Fri, Feb 23, 2024, 10:12 AM <[email protected]> wrote: > On Wednesday, February 21, 2024, at 7:05 PM, Matt Mahoney wrote: > > I was not impressed with the music clips, but that's just me. > > This is shocking because on my end I have made a buffet of impressive and > diverse masterpieces. And I can tell this is close to perfect they only > didn't give us a longer generation limit lol! And took away the AI from us > too. Even the mario soundtrack? It came prefect. Was desert themed and > snake sounding etc. The ice world castle ones were perfect. Make sure to > listen to them all lol. > > > > On Wednesday, February 21, 2024, at 7:05 PM, Matt Mahoney wrote: > > I'm estimating 30 years assuming that the cost of generating a movie or > song using AI drops by half every 1.5 years > > half.....only half every 1.5 years :) ..... But you wouldn't say this > after the planet is swarming with ASIs and nanobots, I don't think... I > think it works like that maybe for another 2 years and then we really get a > accelerated progress. > > AGI going to finally surpass us, humans have been stuck forever at human > level. And human speed. > > Even just humanoid robots, at human speed, can run around and move their > fingers really fast, in human-speed bounds. We don't really run around and > move fast because it costs us more energy and seems like more work, but > that is our downfall. A human can actually run move 4 times faster than > typically do. That would be 4 times the progress per year. They will also > think 4 or 100 times faster. And more intelligent. This is an explosion of > progress coming it seems. > > Yes, to make it clear, I can over my kitchen table move my fingers and > hands 6 times faster than normally would be seen, i.e. I can move my finger > (like I am pointing at X or pressing a button) in/out from a fist staring > position like 10 times per second....you get it. It looks like motion blur > its so fast. > > In fact I can't think fast enough to use that human-speed maximum of my > motors. So it's mostly useless to humans therefore. But the robots will > have much more time to think about their movements. > > > > But anyway, GPT-5 is coming this year probably and will be AGI. ASI next > year :) Brett said too robotics is solves now he scaling up and making > incredible progress we will prob see it make fences etc this year and do > everything! If it can do what we saw making a coffee for the most part, it > is all done, we are so close. > > Video AI is solves seeing Sora. Music AI is solved. Text AI solved once > reach GPT-4. Image AI solves with DALL-E 3 nearly (got my hard test to > flunk it but they were not expecting my hard tests haha!). > *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + > delivery options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> > Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T4ad5d8c386d0e116-M14370bc99132dd7c3f13a624> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T4ad5d8c386d0e116-M385385b9c06005f304190bcd Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
