Aren't you assuming Moore's Law is the only thing happening there to move 
progress ahead? You said doubling every 1.5 years...  But what happens when we 
have 8 billion humanoid robots, for example. Now they move and think 10x faster 
in just a couple of years next. Then 20x faster, for example. Now we have not 
doubling every 1.5 years, but doubling 20x faster than "1.5" years.
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Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI
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