Matt: > Probability is a mathematical model > of belief, not of reality. And in general, brains estimate > probabilities using the 1/t rule. This was confirmed with many > experiments in classical conditioning and reinforcement learning in > animals. Do you remember how this was confirmed? How can the belief of an animal be confirmed? And how can a reported belief value of a human being be relied on? Because the only way that I could see how this could be confirmed is through a selection choice. The problem is that a selection event would have to be based on a statistical-based analysis of a repeated presentation of the reinforcement training followed by (or which includes) a repeated presentation of narrow choice to the subject animals to demonstrate the probability of the belief. This kind of test is therefore heavily biased toward a statistical "explanation" of the probability. That does not knock the finding (assuming that it is true) but it does not "explain" individual learning; it reveals statistical trends. Here is a cross-test that popped into my head. Suppose that a more probable reward is associated with a very difficult task and the less probable reward is associated with a simple task. Are you telling me that an intelligent animal won't first try a simpler task that has produced a reward less frequently? My guess is that he will try the simpler task a number of times before he would go after the difficult task if the difficulty was severe enough. At what difference between the rate of past rewards does the intelligent animal go for the difficult task before the easy task? Jim Bromer
> Date: Wed, 31 Jul 2013 16:26:33 -0400 > Subject: Re: [agi] A Very Simple AGI Project > From: [email protected] > To: [email protected] > > On Wed, Jul 31, 2013 at 3:41 AM, Anastasios Tsiolakidis > <[email protected]> wrote: > > Now, can I "see" a mind without statistics (or equivalent generative code)? > > No, at least not until someone provides a deep and surprising explication > > of the normal distribution. Even if you start life with a statistics-free > > mind and just go out looking for resources, let's say looking for apples on > > apple trees, or water in water holes, you will stumble upon the normal > > distribution, first you walk into a couple of apple trees here and there, > > then into a cluster, you reach a plateau and then decline again. What could > > be simpler! It should come right after me Tarzan, you Jane! > > That is incorrect. Apple trees and water holes have a power law > distribution, not a normal (Gaussian) distribution. If it has been t > time units since you last observed an apple tree or water hole, then > the probability of observing another one in the next time unit is 1/t. > > I realize that not all possible events obey a power law distribution. > In fact, as far as we know, the universe is either deterministic or > indistinguishable from deterministic, and therefore all events have a > real probability of either 0 or 1. Probability is a mathematical model > of belief, not of reality. And in general, brains estimate > probabilities using the 1/t rule. This was confirmed with many > experiments in classical conditioning and reinforcement learning in > animals. > > Our brains probably evolved this way because we observe this > distribution in many types of real data. Some examples are word > frequency in text and packet rates on networks. To give another > example, the probability of a major terrorist attack on the U.S. on > Sept. 12, 2001 was high enough that halting all air travel throughout > the country seemed like a good idea. > > -- > -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] > > > ------------------------------------------- > AGI > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now > RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/24379807-f5817f28 > Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
