On Wed, Jul 31, 2013 at 3:41 AM, Anastasios Tsiolakidis <[email protected]> wrote: > Now, can I "see" a mind without statistics (or equivalent generative code)? > No, at least not until someone provides a deep and surprising explication of > the normal distribution. Even if you start life with a statistics-free mind > and just go out looking for resources, let's say looking for apples on apple > trees, or water in water holes, you will stumble upon the normal > distribution, first you walk into a couple of apple trees here and there, > then into a cluster, you reach a plateau and then decline again. What could > be simpler! It should come right after me Tarzan, you Jane!
That is incorrect. Apple trees and water holes have a power law distribution, not a normal (Gaussian) distribution. If it has been t time units since you last observed an apple tree or water hole, then the probability of observing another one in the next time unit is 1/t. I realize that not all possible events obey a power law distribution. In fact, as far as we know, the universe is either deterministic or indistinguishable from deterministic, and therefore all events have a real probability of either 0 or 1. Probability is a mathematical model of belief, not of reality. And in general, brains estimate probabilities using the 1/t rule. This was confirmed with many experiments in classical conditioning and reinforcement learning in animals. Our brains probably evolved this way because we observe this distribution in many types of real data. Some examples are word frequency in text and packet rates on networks. To give another example, the probability of a major terrorist attack on the U.S. on Sept. 12, 2001 was high enough that halting all air travel throughout the country seemed like a good idea. -- -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
