PM, On Sun, Sep 14, 2014 at 11:57 AM, Piaget Modeler via AGI <[email protected]> wrote:
> Please define expectancy. > The usual definition is the sum of the products of the values of everything that could conceivably happen, times the probability of it happening. However, there was Nobel Prize in Economics awarded for showing that for limited resources (the interesting case), instead of summing, they should be multiplying. I had figured this out ~5 years before the Nobel Prize was awarded, but, oops, I didn't bother publishing it. Note that if there is ANY event likely to result in zero (death) then that course of action should NOT be considered. > > The conversation is about goal pritoritization for an AGI. > Meaning of course determining which action order results in the most "value", which is all about expectancy > Given that an AGI will have important and urgent goals > what is the best prioritization scheme? > Maximizing the expectancy. Note that economists have intensely studied this, ever since Game Theory burst onto the scene ~60 years ago. Steve > > I like the notion of *salience *as a combination of the two attributes. > > ~PM > > ------------------------------ > Date: Sun, 14 Sep 2014 11:18:00 -0700 > Subject: Re: [agi] Importance vs. Urgency > From: [email protected] > To: [email protected] > > > HI, > > It seems that if you plot situations on a 2-D graph relating urgency and > importance, that they will all fall along a negatively-sloped diagonal line > EXCEPT some that lie above the line that should be done immediately, and > some that fall below the line, and hence can be put off forever. > > It sounds like this discussion is about the line, and not about the > outliers, when it is handling the outliers that offers the greatest value. > > Is this discussion simply about the slope (and shape) of the diagonal line > mentioned above? > > Doesn't computing expectancy cover this entire subject? > > Steve > ================ > On Sat, Sep 13, 2014 at 1:12 PM, Russ Hurlbut via AGI <[email protected]> > wrote: > > Steven Covey crusades for breaking free of urgency and putting important > things first, but considers them as equals on two dimensions of a quadrant > <http://sidsavara.com/personal-development/nerdy-productivity-coveys-time-management-matrix-illustrated-with-xkcd-comics> > . > > In a study of factors that affect task prioritization reported by pilots > <http://flightdeck.ie.orst.edu/CTM/study1/study1.html>, importance was > cited more frequently by a margin of greater than 2:1, yet concludes that > with a model of *status (urgency)* uses *procedure* to obtain *value > (importance).* > > Another study on decision making by urgency gating > <http://jn.physiology.org/content/108/11/2912> suggests a policy that > maximizes reward rate is to estimate evidence by accumulating only novel > information and then compare the result to a decreasing accuracy criterion. > The brain approximates this policy by *multiplying an estimate of sensory > evidence with a motor-related urgency signal* and that the latter is > primarily responsible for neural activity build up. Since the brain is > wired to treat novelty as a measure of importance, this would lead to some > measure of *salience* that combines the two. The paper concludes > that "the build up of neural activity observed in many decision-making > tasks is not primarily attributable to the integration of sensory > information but that it is caused by an *urgency signal*, related to > motor preparation, that implements a simple policy for *achieving a > speed-accuracy trade off.*" > > Finally, one may consider valence and a distinction between positive > urgency and negative urgency > <http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2705930/> - the tendency to > engage in rash action in response to extreme positive/negative affect. Such > a distinction could bias risk-taking behavior. > > > > > On Fri, Sep 12, 2014 at 9:55 PM, Piaget Modeler via AGI <[email protected]> > wrote: > > Importance then urgency, or urgency then importance? > > Which? > > ~PM > *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/18488709-8cf25195> | > Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription > <http://www.listbox.com> > > > *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/10443978-6f4c28ac> | > Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription > <http://www.listbox.com> > > > > > -- > Full employment can be had with the stoke of a pen. Simply institute a six > hour workday. That will easily create enough new jobs to bring back full > employment. > > *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/19999924-4a978ccc> | > Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription > <http://www.listbox.com> > *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/10443978-6f4c28ac> | > Modify > <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> > Your Subscription <http://www.listbox.com> > -- Full employment can be had with the stoke of a pen. Simply institute a six hour workday. That will easily create enough new jobs to bring back full employment. ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
