Steve I sympathise with your very understandable preference not to be targeted by anti-AI crazies!
What do you think is the best way to try and shape the growing public debate about AGI? Following Bostrom's book, and the comments by Hawking, Musk and Gates, a fair proportion of the general public is now aware that AGI might arrive in the medium term, and that it will have a very big impact. Some AI researchers seem to be responding by saying, "Don't worry, it can't happen for centuries, if ever". No doubt some of them genuinely believe that, but I wonder whether some are saying it in the (forlorn?) hope the debate will go away. It won't. In fact I suspect that the new Avengers movie will kick it up a level. Others are saying, "Don't worry, AGI cannot and will not harm humans." To my mind (and I realise I may be in a small minority here on this) that is hard to be certain about - as Bostrom demonstrated. Yet others are saying, "AI researcher will solve the problem long before AGI arrives, and it's best not to worry everyone else in the meantime." That seems a dangerous approach to me. If the public ever feels (rightly or wrongly) that things have been hidden from them, they will react badly. But I do definitely sympathise with the desire not to be targeted by crazies, or to be vilified by journalists who have half-understood the situation! I am not an AI researcher. I am a retired businessman now resuming a lapsed career as a writer, and my subject is AGI. My first novel, Pandora's Brain, is just out. I chose the subject because I think it is the most important one in the world, bar none. The most likely outcome of my writing, of course, is zilch. Half a million new books are published in the US and the UK every year, and it would be arrogant to think mine will stand out. But I work hard on them, and one can dream. In the unlikely event that more than a handful of people will read Pandora, I want to make a responsible contribution to the debate. That is why I chose the subject in the first place. Having said all this, I'll understand if Ben just kicks me off the forum! Regards Calum On 17 March 2015 at 08:36, Steve Richfield via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: > The BIG problem that threatens the safety of everyone on this forum are > crazies like some on this forum who publicly (this AGI forum is public and > is Google searchable) claim that potentially dangerous AGIs will be up in > running in 5 years or whenever. Regardless of the truth or lack thereof, > movies (like the Terminator series) portraying the great social value of > KILLING people who develop AGIs is enough to motivate other crazies out > there to do really bad things to the crazies who make such statements. > > Which of the crazies are more dangerous TO ME. That is easy - it is the > crazies on this forum, who might guide other crazies to my door. There are > LOTS of murderous crazies in our world, which I can live with, so long as > no one is guiding them TO ME. > > It is really hard to believe that ANYONE who is SO stupid to be publicly > making such obviously dangerous statements actually thinks they are smart > enough to participate in making a genuine AGI. There is NO WAY that this > could possibly happen. Stupid is forever. > > Personally, I have absolutely NO expectation of any sort of dangerous AGIs > emerging anytime soon, most especially from people who are stupid enough to > make such obviously dangerous public statements. > > The less mentally impaired participants on this forum are quietly working > on their respective theories WITHOUT making such incendiary statements. > > If you the reader have made such public statements in the past, then GIVE > UP working on AGI technology, because you have failed the intelligence test > and are obviously NOT smart enough to ever succeed. Further, your potential > future colleagues will see you as being too dangerous to have as an > associate. > > If you are an assassin looking for someone to kill, then look elsewhere. > These guys aren't worth your ammunition. > > *BEN*: As an act of social responsibility, you should purge ALL postings, > including this posting, that mentions any sort of short time horizon for > AGI development, and go all the way back to the beginning of this forum to > do so. That demonstrations like the one in Texas can even come about shows > the pushback that such statements can attract. Do we really need to be seen > as dangerous social pariahs? > > Steve > ================== > > > On Mon, Mar 16, 2015 at 7:21 PM, Nanograte Knowledge Technologies via AGI > <[email protected]> wrote: > >> If I may say something pelase? To my understanding, Google would and Elon >> Musk would. >> >> However, AI is not the real threat. In my most-humble opinion, it is the >> key to the solution to a real threat. The technology would still be >> developed, regardless, and is probably being hastened as we speak. Perhaps >> the following tenets should be applied to "their" rationale: "The cat's out >> of the bag. What they don't know, won't harm them. Let's just go >> underground and hurry it up some more." As such then, protests are >> insignificant, red herrings. Protests could be staged to support public >> statements, as a distraction and disabling strategy to detract from the >> real issues at hand. Who knows? Who cares? Most people don't even read. I >> agree more with the 5-year outlook, and it could even become 4, depending >> on how quickly the key constraints to such progress could be resolved by >> people like us. >> >> ------------------------------ >> Date: Tue, 17 Mar 2015 08:39:22 +0800 >> Subject: Re: [agi] AI Protest in Texas >> From: [email protected] >> To: [email protected] >> CC: [email protected] >> >> >> >> yeah, that's more consistent with what I've heard from Demis in the >> past... >> >> >> >> On Tue, Mar 17, 2015 at 8:30 AM, Calum Chace <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> Sorry, Ben, it wasn't centuries for Hassabis. It was decades. Rather an >> important difference! >> >> Last year, the American entrepreneur, Elon Musk, one of Deep Mind’s early >> investors, described AI as humanity’s greatest existential threat. “Unless >> you have direct exposure to groups like Deepmind, you have no idea how fast >> [AI] is growing,” he said. “The risk of something seriously dangerous >> happening is in the five year timeframe. Ten years at most.” >> >> However, the Google team played down the concerns. “We agree with him >> there are risks that need to be borne in mind, but we’re decades away from >> any sort of technology that we need to worry about,” Hassabis said. >> >> >> http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/feb/25/google-develops-computer-program-capable-of-learning-tasks-independently >> >> Calum >> >> On 17 March 2015 at 01:20, Ben Goertzel <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> >> Did Demis really say AGI is hundreds of years away? That surprises >> me.... >> >> I think Ng actually believes AGI is far off, he's conservative but I >> believe he's a straight shooter. >> >> I don't know Yann and Christof F2F so I don't have a strong opinion on >> their attitudes... >> >> -- Ben >> >> On Tue, Mar 17, 2015 at 8:13 AM, Calum Chace <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> Yes, but Austin, of all places. >> >> Ben, why do you think Yann LeCun, Andrew Ng, Christof Koch and Demis >> Hassabis have all been lining up to say that AGI is hundreds of years >> away? Are they worried about this sort of reaction? >> >> On 17 March 2015 at 01:10, Ben Goertzel via AGI <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> >> And of course it has to be in Texas 8-D ... >> >> On Tue, Mar 17, 2015 at 5:17 AM, Piaget Modeler via AGI <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >> Straight out of Stephen Spielberg's film: A.I. >> >> ~PM >> >> > Date: Mon, 16 Mar 2015 12:59:25 -0700 >> > Subject: Re: [agi] AI Protest in Texas >> > From: [email protected] >> > To: [email protected] >> >> > >> > On 3/16/15, Aaron Hosford <[email protected]> wrote: >> > > This sort of thing was predicted 50 years ago. >> > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butlerian_Jihad >> > > >> > > Nonetheless, yes, mind blowing. >> > > >> > > On Mon, Mar 16, 2015 at 11:41 AM, Mike Archbold via AGI < >> [email protected]> >> > > wrote: >> > > >> > >> > Bultlerian, named after a guy from Stanwood, WA. I'm not far from >> > there, actually, and there is a beautiful old Scandinavian farming >> > community there, with falling down barns and images of tall blonde >> > girls. >> > >> > A woman in the building I live in told me I have to find Jesus right >> > away after she took a look at my book, presently at position about >> > 5,000,000 on amazon. If I don't find Jesus right away it is all over. >> > >> > What a strange world. >> > >> > >> >> > >> >> http://en.yibada.com/articles/19837/20150316/humans-hold-anti-ai-robot-protest-sxsw-texas.htm >> > >> >> > >> I find this kind of mind blowing. Down with robots? Down with AI? >> > >> >> > >> >> > >> ------------------------------------------- >> > >> AGI >> > >> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >> > >> RSS Feed: >> > >> https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/23050605-2da819ff >> > >> Modify Your Subscription: >> > >> https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >> > >> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >> > >> >> > > >> > >> > >> > ------------------------------------------- >> > AGI >> > Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >> > RSS Feed: >> https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/19999924-4a978ccc >> > Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >> > Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/212726-deec6279> | Modify >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >> <http://www.listbox.com> >> >> >> >> >> -- >> Ben Goertzel, PhD >> http://goertzel.org >> >> "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one >> persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress >> depends on the unreasonable man." -- George Bernard Shaw >> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/26879140-5b8435c3> | >> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >> <http://www.listbox.com> >> >> >> >> >> -- >> Regards >> >> Calum >> >> >> >> >> -- >> Ben Goertzel, PhD >> http://goertzel.org >> >> "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one >> persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress >> depends on the unreasonable man." -- George Bernard Shaw >> >> >> >> >> -- >> Regards >> >> Calum >> >> >> >> >> -- >> Ben Goertzel, PhD >> http://goertzel.org >> >> "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one >> persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress >> depends on the unreasonable man." -- George Bernard Shaw >> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/26941503-0abb15dc> | >> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >> <http://www.listbox.com> >> *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> >> <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/10443978-6f4c28ac> | >> Modify <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> Your Subscription >> <http://www.listbox.com> >> > > > > -- > Full employment can be had with the stoke of a pen. Simply institute a six > hour workday. That will easily create enough new jobs to bring back full > employment. > > *AGI* | Archives <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now> > <https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/26879140-5b8435c3> | > Modify > <https://www.listbox.com/member/?&;> > Your Subscription <http://www.listbox.com> > -- Regards Calum ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
