On Wed, 07 Feb 2007 10:57:04 -0500, Ben Goertzel <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
The dramatic probabilistic incoherency of humans is demonstrated by human behavior in casinos.
You mean something more stringent than me by the word incoherency, then. Human betting behavior in casinos is stupid but it is not incoherent in the De Finetti sense as I understand it.
It's easy to prove incoherence: one need only show how a dutch book can be made against the allegedly incoherent person. Vulnerability to dutch books is how incoherence is defined under the theory.
Casino gamblers are stupid in so much as they place bets with unfavorable odds, but they do not by virtue of those stupid bets make themselves vulnerable to dutch books. One sometimes wins against unfavorable odds but it is never possible to beat a dutch book. In fact casinos do not even offer such betting situations.
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