Dennis Gorelik wrote:
Jiri,
Give $1 for the research to who?
Research team can easily eat millions $$$ without producing any useful
results.
If you just randomly pick researchers for investment, your chances to
get any useful outcome from the project is close to zero.
The best investing practise is to invest only into such teams that
produced working prototype already.
Serious funding is usually helpful only to scale prototype up.
(See how it worked out for Google, for example).
So far there is no working prototype of AGI yet, therefore there is no
point to invest.
On the other hand some narrow AI teams already produced some useful
results. Such teams deserve investments.
When narrow AI field is mature enough -- making next step to AGI would
be possible for self-funding AGI research team.
Although this seems like a reasonable stance, I don't think it is a
strategy that will lead the world to the fast development (or perhaps
any development) of a real AGI. Allow me to explain why I think this.
I agree you would not just pick researchers at random, but on the other
hand if you insist on a team with a "working prototype" this might well
be a disaster.
I am in a position to use massive investment straight away (and I have a
project plan that says how), but the specific technical analysis of the
AGI problem that I have made indicates that nothing like a 'prototype'
is even possible until after a massive amount of up-front effort. There
are things we can do ahead of time (and some of those are underway), but
if anyone asks for a prototype that does some fraction of the task, I
can only point to the technical analysis and ask the investor to
understand why this is not possible.
Catch 22. No prototype, no investment; no investment, no prototype.
Investors are leery of "sorry, no prototype!" claims (with good reason,
generally) but they are also not tech-savvy enough to comprehend the
technical analysis that tells them that they should make an exception in
this case. And even worse, the technical community (for reasons I have
explained, to general annoyance ;-) ) has reasons for disliking the
particular technical analysis I have offered.
If I turn out to be right in my analysis, none of the people who have
what they claim to be prototypes will actually reach the goal of a
viable AGI. (They disagree, of course!).
Richard Loosemore
Wednesday, October 31, 2007, 11:50:12 PM, you wrote:
I believe AGI does need promoting. And it's IMO similar with the
immortality research some of the Novamente folks are involved in. It's
just unbelievable how much money (and other resources) are being used
for all kinds of nonsense/insignificant projects worldwide. I wish
every American gave just $1 for AGI and $1 for immortality research.
Imagine what this money could for all of us (if used wisely).
Unfortunately, people will rather spend the money for their popcorn in
a cinema.
Godlike intelligence? :) Ok, here is how I see it: If we survive, I
believe we will eventually get plugged into some sort of pleasure
machine and we will not care about intelligence at all. Intelligence
is a useless tool when there are no problems and no goals to think
about. We don't really want any goals/problems in our minds.
Basically, the goal is to not have goal(s) and safely experience as
intense pleasure as the available design allows for as long as
possible. AGI could be eventually tasked to take care of all what that
takes + search for the system improvements and things that an altered
human mind could consider being even better than feelings as we know
them now. Many might think that they love someone so much that they
would not tell him/her "bye" and get plugged into a pleasure machine,
but I'm pretty sure they would change their mind after the first trial
of a well designed device of that kind. That's how I currently see the
best possible future. Some people, when talking about advanced aliens,
are asking "Where are they?".. Possibly, they are in such a pleasure
machine and don't really care about anything, feeling like true gods
in a world where concepts like intelligence are totally meaningless.
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