>  No:  I am specifically asking for some system other than an AGI system,
> because I am looking for an external example of someone overcoming the
> complex systems problem.

The specific criteria you've described would seem to apply mainly to living
systems ... and we just don't have that much knowledge of the internals of these
yet, due to data-collection issues...

Certainly, the failure of the Biosphere experiment is evidence in your favor.
There, the scientists failed to predict basic high-level properties of
a pretty simple
closed ecosystem, based on their knowledge of the parts.

However, it was not an engineered ecosystem, and their knowledge of the parts
was quite limited compared to our knowledge of the parts of a software system.

In short, my contention is that engineering something, even if it's a
complex system,
places one in a fundamentally different position than if one is
studying a natural system,
simply because one does not understand the makeup of the natural
system that well,
due to limitations in our current measuring instruments.

Ben

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agi
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