On Mon, Sep 22, 2008 at 5:40 AM, Matt Mahoney <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > --- On Sun, 9/21/08, Vladimir Nesov <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > >> So, do you think that there is at least, say, 99% >> probability that AGI >> won't be developed by a reasonably small group in the >> next 30 years? > > Yes, but in the way that the internet was not developed by a small > group. A small number of people designed the basic architecture > (TCP/IP, HTTP, HTML, etc), but it took a huge number of people to > develop it. >
Sure. But this confidence is too high: you possess no technical argument, only some trends and sketchy descriptions, you basically rely on your intuition to integrate the facts into a prediction. It's known not to work. In much more empirically grounded domains, experts give 80% confidence in their prediction and are right only 40% of the time. You can't trust yourself in cases like this. It gets only worse when you add nontrivial details to your prediction. -- Vladimir Nesov [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://causalityrelay.wordpress.com/ ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=114414975-3c8e69 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
