Matthew observed, > Another possibility is that we will discover some low cost shortcut to AGI.
It could be that the first low cost shortcuts we find will require hundreds of gigs of working RAM and cycles per second outside the scope of achievability a decade ago, or even a year from now. For any amount of computing resources n, there are an infinite number of calculations you still cannot run, and applications you still cannot implement. The consensus today seems to be that the hardware is finally in place for a problem like AGI, or AGI specifically, and that it's software we're lacking. Let's say, as a thought experiment, that the most efficient implementation of any given application might require .1% of the resources future commodity versions will use (consider WordPerfect 5.1 vs Word 2000). Then it seems fair to say that the earliest achievable implementation of a given application might cost 1000x to develop than later commodity versions. It also seems fair to say that proof-of-concepts so primitive may never be produced, due to the factors making it so expensive and the evident infeasibility/ambitiousness of the project. On the other hand, applications developed very late into their feasibility might be made very cheaply, and in great numbers, all of a sudden. So I think the real price of human-level AI is a function involving time. But, I don't think it's a matter of paying a huge amount now or waiting for decades. I actually think this will be achievable by hackers and amateurs in a handful of years, and I've seen a claim that corporations could have produced it for a few millions of dollars at any point in the 21st century so far. This was based on an estimation of the amount of computing power required to implement the number of computations done in the human brain... A quadrillion dollars is a very prohibitive sum. How long, in your opinion, until the price is one billion? Eric B On 9/22/08, Eric Burton <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Note that $1 quadrillion is only a few orders of magnitude more > expensive than the war in Iraq. It could well be less than the price > of bringing democracy to every podunk and backwater on the globe! > > On 9/21/08, Matt Mahoney <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> >> >> -- Matt Mahoney, [EMAIL PROTECTED] >> >> --- On Sun, 9/21/08, Ben Goertzel <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >>>Here's the thing ... it might wind up costing trillions of dollars to >>> ultimately replace all aspects of the human economy with AGI-based labor >>> ... but this cost doesn't need to occur **before** the first human-level >>> AGI is created ... >> >> "Human level AGI" isn't well defined. We aren't creating artificial >> humans. >> We're creating machines that can do more, like Google can do more than a >> calculator. Both are already more intelligent than humans at certain >> tasks. >> >> And you're right that we don't need to pay for it first. Given the cost, >> it's not even possible. The cost is ongoing, like building the internet. >> >>>We'll create the human-level AGI first, without such a high cost --- and >>> then, perhaps it will cost a lot of $$ to refit all the McDonalds and >>> Walmarts and auto factories to to run on AGI power rather than human >>> power >>> ... but that is not part of the cost of creating the AGI. >> >> Let's not fall into the trap of imagining the future is like the present, >> except with AGI. Fifty years ago we imagined a future with robot gas >> station >> attendants and tourists on Mars, not the other way around. AGI will change >> the way we do things in ways that are hard to imagine. >> >>> (And of course, the AGI may achieve Singularity before the McDonalds' >>> are >>> refit ... ;-) >> >> That is phase 2, when fear of death induces us to create agents with human >> goals. >> >> >> >> ------------------------------------------- >> agi >> Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now >> RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ >> Modify Your Subscription: >> https://www.listbox.com/member/?&; >> Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com >> > ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=114414975-3c8e69 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
