--- On Sun, 9/21/08, Vladimir Nesov <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > On Mon, Sep 22, 2008 at 5:40 AM, Matt Mahoney > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > --- On Sun, 9/21/08, Vladimir Nesov > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > >> So, do you think that there is at least, say, 99% > >> probability that AGI > >> won't be developed by a reasonably small group > in the > >> next 30 years? > > > > Yes, but in the way that the internet was not > developed by a small > > group. A small number of people designed the basic > architecture > > (TCP/IP, HTTP, HTML, etc), but it took a huge number > of people to > > develop it. > > > > Sure. But this confidence is too high: you possess no > technical > argument, only some trends and sketchy descriptions, you > basically > rely on your intuition to integrate the facts into a > prediction. It's > known not to work. In much more empirically grounded > domains, experts > give 80% confidence in their prediction and are right only > 40% of the > time. You can't trust yourself in cases like this. It > gets only worse > when you add nontrivial details to your prediction.
I guess we will have to wait for the future to see who's right ;-) Also, I do have a technical description of AGI at http://www.mattmahoney.net/agi.html Unlike most proposals I have seen, it addresses the economic and security issues behind building a massively distributed knowledge base. -- Matt Mahoney, [EMAIL PROTECTED] ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=114414975-3c8e69 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
