Well.....
The speed of light limitation seems rather secure. So I would propose
that we have been visited by roboticized probes, rather than by
naturally evolved creatures. And the energetic constraints make it seem
likely that they were extremely small and infrequent...though I suppose
that they could build larger probes locally.
My guess is that UFOs are just that. Unidentified. I suspect that many
of them aren't even objects in any normal sense of the word. Temporary
plasmas, etc. And others are more or less orthodox flying vehicles seen
under unusual conditions. (I remember once being convinced that I'd seen
one, but extended observation revealed that it was an advertising blimp
seen with the sun behind it, and it was partially transparent. Quite
impressive, and not at all blimp like. It even seemed to be moving
rapidly, but that was due to the sunlight passing through an interior
membrane that was changing in size and shape.
It would require rather impressive evidence before I would believe in
actual visitations by naturally evolved entities. (Though the concept of
MacroLife does provide one reasonable scenario.) Still... I would
consider it more plausible to assert that we lived in a virtual world
scenario, and were being monitored within it.
In any case, I see no operational tests, and thus I don't see any cause
for using those possibilities to alter our activities.
Ed Porter wrote:
Since there have been multiple discussions of aliens lately on this
list, I think I should communicate a thought that I have had
concerning them that I have not heard any one else say --- although I
would be very surprised if others have not thought it --- and it does
relate to AGI --- so it is “on list.”
====
As we learn just how common exoplanets are, the possibility that
aliens have visited earth seems increasingly scientifically
believable, even for a relatively rationalist person like myself.
There have, in fact, been many reportings of UFOs from sources that
are hard to reject out of hand. An astronaut that NASA respected
enough to send to the moon, has publicly stated he has attended
government briefings in which he was told there is substantial
evidence aliens have repeatedly visited earth. Within the last year
Drudge had a report from a Chicago TV station that said sources at the
tower of O'Hare airport claimed multiple airline pilots reported to
them seeing a large flying-saucer-shaped object hovering over one of
the building of the airport and then disappearing.
Now, I am not saying these reports are necessarily true, but I am
saying that --- (a) given how rapidly life evolved on earth, as soon
as it cooled enough that there were large pools of water; (b) there
are probably at least a million habitable planets in the Milky Way (a
conservative estimates); and (c) if one assumes one in 1000 such
planets will have life evolve to AGI super-intelligence --- the
chances there are planets with AGI super-intelligence within several
thousand light years of earth are very good. And since, at least,
mechanical AGIs with super intelligence and the resulting levels of
technology should be able to travel through space at one tenth to one
thousandth the speed of light for many tens of thousands of years, it
is not at all unlikely life and/or machine forms from such planets
have had time to reach us --- and perhaps --- not only to reach us ---
but also to report back to their home planet and recruit many more of
their kind to visit us.
This becomes even more likely if one considers that some predict the
Milky Way actually had its peak number of habitable planets billions
of years ago, meaning that on many planets evolution of intelligent
life is millions, or billions, of years ahead of ours, and thus that
life/machine forms on many of the planets capable of supporting
intelligent life are millions of years beyond their singularities.
This would mean their development of extremely powerful
super-intelligence and the attendant developments in technologies we
know of --- such as nanofabrication, controlled fusion reactions, and
quantum computing and engineering --- and technologies we do not yet
even know of --- would be way beyond our imagining.
All of the above is nothing new, among those who are open minded about
(a) the evidence about the commonness of exoplanets; (b) the fact that
there are enough accounts of UFO's from reputable sources that such
accounts cannot dismissed out of hand as false, and (c) what the
singularity and the development of super-intelligence would mean to a
civilization.
====
But what I am suggesting that I have never heard before is that it is
possible the aliens, if they actually have been visiting us repeatedly
are watching us to see when mankind achieves super-intelligence,
because only then do we presumably have a chance of becoming their equal.
Perhaps this means that only then we can understand them. Or perhaps
it means that only then we can become a threat to them.
If they are smart enough to get here from solar systems far away, and
if they are smart enough to appear to instantly disappear the way many
accounts claim UFO's do, then presumably they are smart enough to
monitor our communications, decode them, and if they decide necessary
for their benefit, to intervene, either benevolently or destructively.
Those of you who frequent portions of the web much more wigged-out
than I do --- which the entheogen discussing suggested some of you do
--- will probably say "ho hum, been there, thought that."
But whether is it a new thought or an old though --- if alien life
forms are actually monitoring us, our achieving AGI would
substantially change our relationship to them and may substantially
change their behavior toward us --- and that might just be a very
important thought.
====
'd be interested in your thoughts.
====
Ed Porter
-----Original Message-----
From: Ben Goertzel [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Tuesday, November 25, 2008 6:53 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [agi] JAGI submission
> I could also argue that the limitations on RSI would constrain a
hard-takeoff singularity to an explosion of computational power, not
of knowledge. But I think that might be a stretch. Not everyone agrees
that there will even be a singularity in the first place.
You could argue that, but not convincingly or effectively.
How can you know what complex patterns a superhuman AI might find in
the world ... or what beings, unknown to us, it might interact with
and learn from?
-- Ben G
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