hi ,
Flight to the dollar is expected to get even stronger in short term once
OBAMA gets into office NOV 5 and forms his team and then later when they
just realise that its all FIAT money and there is no positive effect ,
the dollar is just going to drop . .
Fiat money (who is going to pay for the printed dollar notes : CANT BE
TAXPAYERS its impossible nearly one trillion ~ noone will buy Paper also
now ) always inevitably results in a severe prolonged recession .
. I think bad days ahead this is just the beginning ,, trying to Jump
start the engine is not working . and its going to take all the emerging
markets also along slightly for a while .
but these are good buy opportunities for emerging markets .which would
decouple a lot from these advanced ones .
NOTE : world gdp 56 trillion , usa +Japan + Eurozone == 40 trillion ,
CHINA 3 trillion , India 1 trillion , russia + other brics 2
trillion ..rest of world remaining 6 trillion .
India , china gdp is too small to get very badly hit only flight of
dollar from these markets is there in the short term . .
CHINA 6 % and India 7 % .. expected ... average . growth .next year ..
Thanks .
....
On 10/26/08, brian_z111 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> Thanks Tomasz - a very good resource for insight into the markets.
>
> brian_z
>
> --- In [email protected] <amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>, "Tomasz
> Janeczko" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> wrote:
> >
> > Brian,
> >
> > Actually it is known phenomenon that USD is getting strength
> > when economy collapses.
> > See "dollar is smiling in a recession"
> > http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2007/20071210-
> Mon.html (Dec 2007)
> > and
> > http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2008/20080407-
> Mon.html (Apr, 2008)
> >
> > Best regards,
> > Tomasz Janeczko
> > amibroker.com
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "brian_z111" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
> > To: <[email protected] <amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>>
> > Sent: Sunday, October 26, 2008 4:17 AM
> > Subject: [amibroker] Re: OT: Fed to cut rates below 1% soon ?
> >
> >
> >
> > Does anyone have any idea why the USD is so strong at the moment.
> >
> > I am puzzled by this as I can't see any basis for it.
> >
> > The only explanation that I can come up with is that there has been
> a
> > silent emulation of the Japanese 'carry trade' based on low interest
> > USD loans (the US has low interest rates, a desire to protect
> > exports, sluggish growth and a sophisticated investment culture in
> > common with Japan).
> >
> > quote from:
> >
> > http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/yen_carry_trade_101620084
> >
> > Japan sits at the epicenter of "bubble-mania" in foreign exchange,
> > because its yield starved domestic investors plowed $6 trillion of
> > their savings into overseas assets.
> >
> > Japanese investors increased their exposure to foreign assets by ¥59
> > trillion ($566 billion) in 2007 alone, setting a record top of ¥610
> > trillion ($5.9 trillion) and making Japan the world's largest
> > creditor nation for the 17th straight year.
> >
> > In addition, global speculators borrowed $1.2 trillion worth of low-
> > cost Japanese Yen (Tokyo interest rates haven't got above 1.0% per
> > year since the start of this decade), in order to buy higher
> yielding
> > currencies, commodities, and stocks held abroad.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > "History never repeats, I tell myself before I go to sleep at night"
> > (Split Enz)
> >
> > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Financial_Crisis
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In [email protected] <amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>, "Tomasz
> Janeczko" <groups@>
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > Hello,
> > >
> > > Did you see this daily effective FED rate chart:
> > > http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/
> > >
> > > Usually effective rate follows closely target rate (currently at
> > 1.5%)
> > >
> > > In recent days effective FED rate dropped below 1%.
> > >
> > > It looks to me that FED is going to be walking in footsteps of
> > Japan central bank in '90s.
> > >
> > > Now EBC funds still at 3.75% ? They are going to cut fast, much
> > faster than FED, IMHO.
> > > If situation evolves in that direction we are going to see EURUSD
> =
> > 1.0 soon
> > > and probably Japanese Yen remaining the strongest currency for
> > months to come.
> > >
> > > Any thoughts?
> > >
> > > Best regards,
> > > Tomasz Janeczko
> > > amibroker.com
> > >
> >
> >
> >
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--
Warm Regards;
`````` Natasha !!!
To achieve, you need thought. You have to know what you are doing and that's
real power.
