> India , china gdp is too small to get very badly hit Similarly the Australian market is somewhat irrelevant on the world stage plus systemic problems aren't so deep in a smaller modern economy plus govt actions were speedier and more appropiate (easier to isolate problems in a small economy and more time to react based on overseas experience and events) so Aus is still positive for some growth in future years.
Unfotunately it is an immature economy ... like a micro US and not fully fledged enough to feed us all. > CHINA 6 % and India 7 % .. expected ... average . growth .next >year .. I saw some conflicting opinion on China's growth ... BHP Billiton who are at home there and reported to have very good local knowlege and relationships .... they are informed by way of the contracts they negotiate and write ... they are still bullish on China growth plus China has strong foreign reserve for local stimulus..... specifically they don't predict long term demand for commodities to fall to the extent factored in by the markets. China seems accepting of their role on the world stage and prepared to act constructively. Australia is actually more on the Chinese/Asian coat tail than in previous decades so optimisitically will still get some lift. The world is very interested in the US election - it influences our lifes that much I feel we should get a vote :-) Of course we have opinion on US politics and the need for soul searching but being polite we don't interfere and leave it up to you.... the US is not alone in the need for soul searching ... all of the modern world is in he same boat .... none of us are holier than thou. The rest of the world understands the implications that current events mark the shift in power from the US as the primary power to shared global power ... this was going on and is inevitable anyway.... in short China and India can still pull the world economy along while the US has some timeout. Australia understands the eminence of the Asian economies .... we are the Anglos of Asia ... the Asians are sophisticated enough to understand this and the ironies involved ... when Australia officially joined APEC the Asian chair quipped about us now being Asian and got a good laugh from it ... so the relationship is friendly/mature enough to joke about it at official levels. brian_z --- In [email protected], "Natasha ~~!!!" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > hi , > > Flight to the dollar is expected to get even stronger in short term once > OBAMA gets into office NOV 5 and forms his team and then later when they > just realise that its all FIAT money and there is no positive effect , > the dollar is just going to drop . . > > Fiat money (who is going to pay for the printed dollar notes : CANT BE > TAXPAYERS its impossible nearly one trillion ~ noone will buy Paper also > now ) always inevitably results in a severe prolonged recession . > > . I think bad days ahead this is just the beginning ,, trying to Jump > start the engine is not working . and its going to take all the emerging > markets also along slightly for a while . > > but these are good buy opportunities for emerging markets .which would > decouple a lot from these advanced ones . > NOTE : world gdp 56 trillion , usa +Japan + Eurozone == 40 trillion , > CHINA 3 trillion , India 1 trillion , russia + other brics 2 > trillion ..rest of world remaining 6 trillion . > > India , china gdp is too small to get very badly hit only flight of > dollar from these markets is there in the short term . . > > CHINA 6 % and India 7 % .. expected ... average . growth .next year .. > > Thanks . > > .... > > On 10/26/08, brian_z111 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > Thanks Tomasz - a very good resource for insight into the markets. > > > > brian_z > > > > --- In [email protected] <amibroker% 40yahoogroups.com>, "Tomasz > > Janeczko" <groups@> > > wrote: > > > > > > Brian, > > > > > > Actually it is known phenomenon that USD is getting strength > > > when economy collapses. > > > See "dollar is smiling in a recession" > > > http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2007/20071210- > > Mon.html (Dec 2007) > > > and > > > http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/archive/2008/20080407- > > Mon.html (Apr, 2008) > > > > > > Best regards, > > > Tomasz Janeczko > > > amibroker.com > > > ----- Original Message ----- > > > From: "brian_z111" <brian_z111@> > > > To: <[email protected] <amibroker%40yahoogroups.com>> > > > Sent: Sunday, October 26, 2008 4:17 AM > > > Subject: [amibroker] Re: OT: Fed to cut rates below 1% soon ? > > > > > > > > > > > > Does anyone have any idea why the USD is so strong at the moment. > > > > > > I am puzzled by this as I can't see any basis for it. > > > > > > The only explanation that I can come up with is that there has been > > a > > > silent emulation of the Japanese 'carry trade' based on low interest > > > USD loans (the US has low interest rates, a desire to protect > > > exports, sluggish growth and a sophisticated investment culture in > > > common with Japan). > > > > > > quote from: > > > > > > http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/yen_carry_trade_101620084 > > > > > > Japan sits at the epicenter of "bubble-mania" in foreign exchange, > > > because its yield starved domestic investors plowed $6 trillion of > > > their savings into overseas assets. > > > > > > Japanese investors increased their exposure to foreign assets by ¥59 > > > trillion ($566 billion) in 2007 alone, setting a record top of ¥610 > > > trillion ($5.9 trillion) and making Japan the world's largest > > > creditor nation for the 17th straight year. > > > > > > In addition, global speculators borrowed $1.2 trillion worth of low- > > > cost Japanese Yen (Tokyo interest rates haven't got above 1.0% per > > > year since the start of this decade), in order to buy higher > > yielding > > > currencies, commodities, and stocks held abroad. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > "History never repeats, I tell myself before I go to sleep at night" > > > (Split Enz) > > > > > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_Financial_Crisis > > > > > > > > > > > > --- In [email protected] <amibroker% 40yahoogroups.com>, "Tomasz > > Janeczko" <groups@> > > > wrote: > > > > > > > > Hello, > > > > > > > > Did you see this daily effective FED rate chart: > > > > http://www.newyorkfed.org/charts/ff/ > > > > > > > > Usually effective rate follows closely target rate (currently at > > > 1.5%) > > > > > > > > In recent days effective FED rate dropped below 1%. > > > > > > > > It looks to me that FED is going to be walking in footsteps of > > > Japan central bank in '90s. > > > > > > > > Now EBC funds still at 3.75% ? They are going to cut fast, much > > > faster than FED, IMHO. > > > > If situation evolves in that direction we are going to see EURUSD > > = > > > 1.0 soon > > > > and probably Japanese Yen remaining the strongest currency for > > > months to come. > > > > > > > > Any thoughts? > > > > > > > > Best regards, > > > > Tomasz Janeczko > > > > amibroker.com > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------------ > > > > > > **** IMPORTANT **** > > > This group is for the discussion between users only. > > > This is *NOT* technical support channel. > > > > > > ********************* > > > TO GET TECHNICAL SUPPORT from AmiBroker please send an e-mail > > directly to > > > SUPPORT {at} amibroker.com > > > ********************* > > > > > > For NEW RELEASE ANNOUNCEMENTS and other news always check DEVLOG: > > > http://www.amibroker.com/devlog/ > > > > > > For other support material please check also: > > > http://www.amibroker.com/support.html > > > > > > ********************************* > > > Yahoo! Groups Links > > > > > > > > > > > > > -- > > Warm Regards; > `````` Natasha !!! > To achieve, you need thought. You have to know what you are doing and that's > real power. >
