Hi Owen,
Finding 4 actors who want to corner the market probably wouldn’t be very
hard. Since 25% is 1/4 of the projected market size, I would say that the
rest of your argument is on pretty shaky ground.
It's not nearly so simple. First you would have to find four players willing
to risk $8 billion dollars. Second you would have to have them create an
inherently unstable cartel. Third you would have to find sellers with that
much space, and this would likely mean hundreds of sellers at the least and
a years-long endeavor. Fourth you would have to process those sales in a
transparent market where your purchases are recorded for all to see. Fifth
you would have to believe that there would be no reaction to this public
information vis a vis price. Sixth you would also have to believe that these
four billionaires ignored any risk of driving the IPv6 transition which
would make their efforts worthless. Seventh you would have to ignore the
fact that there are already methods of acquiring space without need which to
my knowledge have not been used by speculators, and in fact there is zero
evidence that speculators even exist.
We are three years into the open, post-Microsoft/Nortel market and there
is no evidence of hoarding in my experience. I have never fielded a phone
call or email from any company or individual seeking addresses they didn't
plan to utilize at some point, although I have fielded plenty from people
seeking addresses that for whatever reason ARIN policy would prohibit them
from registering. Perhaps other brokers on the list might report on their
experiences.
Address space is still available nearly for free from ARIN, especially for
smaller organizations, so this isn’t a real test of what will happen post
runout and any claim that it is is absurd.
Are you saying that my claim of never having heard from a speculator is
absurd? Have you forgotten that APNIC and RIPE ran out years ago? (after
which point they both dropped the needs test for transfers).
Little guys benefit from the dropping of needs test for small transfers.
No need to navigate the ARIN process if you just need a /24 and you can't
get one from your upstream, or not at a reasonable cost, or because you
feel more secure with your own space, or because you don't wish to game
the system. Support of 2014-14 would allow small companies to have this
option while preventing hoarding or speculation through limits on size and
number of transfers. Perhaps you care to comment on whether you might
consider support of 2014-14 at the current size of /16 or at another size
that you might feel more appropriate?
Again, this is your perspective, but it’s not necessarily entirely true. It’s
only true if you assume that the market will have a continuous supply and
demand will be lower than supply. I would argue that the number of inter-RIR
transfers to the APNIC region which have already been processed would
indicate that after exhaustion, this is unlikely to be a persistent state or
even last very long at all.
Owen I have brokered more transfers to APNIC than anybody in the world.
Nothing I said requires that there be a continuous situation where demand is
lower than supply. However I can report without much understanding that
there is indeed more supply than demand in the transfer market today, based
on my own experiences and those I have heard from other brokers.
Regards,
Mike
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