Some people do confuse immaculate conception with the virgin birth. But this is a major issue of those days. And there was even a view among Protestants that Christian traditions reflected in the Qur'an expressed the Catholic idea of the Immaculate Conception. Gibbon and others speaks of this, so it is very doubtful that Shoghi Effendi could have mistaken the terminology or missed the larger sectrarian debate of his time. Gibbon, perhaps his favorite author, seems to have seen the immaculate conception of Mary suggested by the Qur'an and it is the quranic version of Mary's sufferings that Baha'u'llah cites in the Iqan. Further, it is the Iqan that Shoghi Effendi seems to correlates with the immaculate conception, depending on how one reads the Promised Day Is Come (since he may have only been correlating it to the Virgin Mary). But, in light of Gibbons, one would naturally assume he means to correlate it with the immaculate conception of Mary. The evidence that he (improbable) or the secretaries (more probable) didn't understand and/or appreciate the specific significance of the terminology (i.e., its clear cultural identification with the dogma expressed in the 1854 Bull) is the October 1948 letter "the 'Immaculate Conception' or what we really mean is the Virgin Birth (for the two are different.)" It is also interesting that letter four says: "With regard to your question concerning the Virgin Birth of Jesus; on this point, as on several others, the Baha'i teachings are in *full agreement* with the doctrines of the Catholic Church." This seems exaggerated, even if one really believed that Promised Day Is Come was a direct affirmation of the 1854 Bull and Catholic doctrine, since the Baha'i Faith doesn't appear to be in "full" agreement with any Catholic doctrine. On the other hand, the plural "doctrines" suggests both the virgin birth and immaculate conception.
Three sources known to Shoghi Effendi are 1) Sale's translation of the "Koran" (1734), 2) Gibbon's "Decline and Fall" (1737-1794) , and 3) Rodwell's translation of the "Koran" (1861): 1) The Sale's footnote to verse 3:31: "The wife of Imran is Hannah or Anne... Although Muhammad had no direct access to the Apocryphal Gospels, yet these may have influenced, or at any rate, contained much in common with, the ordinary traditions of S. Syria. And of this, the Immaculate Conception of the B. V. Mary, supposed by Gibbon (ch. 50) to have been "borrowed from the Koran," probably formed a part.] Sale also adds: "It is not improbable that the pretended immaculate conception of the Virgin Mary is intimated in this passage; for according to a tradition of Mohammed, every person that comes into the world is touched at his birth by the devil, and therefore cries out: Mary and her son only excepted, between whom and the evil spirit GOD placed a veil, so that his touch did not reach them. And for this reason, they say, neither of them were guilty of any sin, like the rest of the children of Adam: which peculiar grace they obtained by virtue of this recommendation of them by Hannah to GOD's protection." (Al Koran, p. 35) 2) Of the Qur'an, Gibbon wrote: "The wonders of the genuine and apocryphal gospels are profusely heaped on his head; and the Latin church has not disdained to borrow from the Koran the immaculate conception[87] of his virgin mother. Yet Jesus was a mere mortal; and, at the day of judgment, his testimony will serve to condemn both the Jews, who reject him as a prophet, and the Christians, who adore him as the Son of God..." [Footnote 87: It is darkly hinted in the Koran, (c. 3, p. 35,) and more clearly explained by the tradition of the Sonnites, (Sale's Note, and Maracci, tom. ii. p. 112.) In the xiith century, the immaculate conception was condemned by St. Bernard as a presumptuous novelty, (Fra Paolo, Istoria del Concilio di Trento, l. ii.)] 3) Rodwell writes: Footnote 4, to 3:32: "According to a tradition of Muhammad every new-born child is touched by Satan, with the exception of Mary and her Son, between whom and Satan God interposed a veil. Hence this passage may imply the Immaculate Conception of the B. V. Mary. See v. 37 below. With regard to Rodwell, he did *also* use language similar to Shoghi Effendi: Qur'an translation: "And her who kept her maidenhood, and into whom[3] we breathed of our spirit, and made her and her son a sign to all creatures." (21:91) [Footnote 3: See Sura [cix.] lxvi. 12. "It is quite clear from these two passages that Muhammad believed in the Immaculate and miraculous conception of Jesus." But this doesn't mean Rodwell is in any way confusing the two, just referring to both together. Sale, Rodwell, and Gibbon, are arguing that when the Quran says "made her *and* her son a sign" this accords with the Catholic idea that both Mary *and* Jesus are born miraculously, thus "Immaculate [conception of Mary] and miraculous conception of Jesus [i.e., virgin birth]." One could read it the other way, meaning Jesus' "immaculate and miraculous conception", but the point is about Mary and Jesus, and Rodwell would have known what a controversy this was, so I think it is more likely the other way. The Protestant critique of Catholic beliefs (esp. Mary--Mother of God, immaculate conception, and assumption of Mary) was a major theme that continued into Shoghi Effendi's day. Protestants believed that the end-time prophecies about the anti-Christ and the Beast, etc., concerned the Pope and Islam. The teachings of Pius IX (immaculate conception, prohibition against Bible readings, infallibility) were often cited as affirmations of the great evil of Roman Catholicism. A link between the Qur'an with the Catholic doctrine would have been of special interest to them. One problem with arguing that Shoghi Effendi also affirmed the Immaculate Conception of Mary is the letter saying "full" agreement with Catholic doctrine. In reality, any correlation with the Qur'an's idea of immaculacy really suggests something very different from Catholic Doctrine. The Catholic doctrine hinges on original sin. The problem with saying that he didn't affirm the Immaculate conception of Mary is the letter opposing the denial of the Immaculate Conception by some Christians. In this context, it doesn't seem plausible that he meant the Virgin Birth of Jesus, as all Christian Creeds affirm the virgin birth as a true doctrine. Protestants especially, but the Eastern Church too, however, were well known for opposing the doctrine of the Immaculate conception of Mary (although not putting this opposition into a formal creed--so even that is not exactly right). On the whole, if one were to take the strict position that all the letters are authoritative, then both doctrines must be affirmed to some degree or in full. And were it not for other writings to the contrary, I suppose Baha'is would end up believing in the Catholic notion of original sin too. But again, without the doctrine of original sin, it simply doesn't make sense to say some creeds oppose the Immaculate Conception, because otherwise, even Protestants affirm, rather than oppose, in the immaculacy of Mary, just as would Muslims and Baha'is. For Protestants, its the Catholic view that Mary was free of original sin that is the problem, just as with Baha'is. 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