Benjamin,

Timeframe for network congestion and users experiencing service
degradation => between now and middle of next year.

Timeframe for transaction fees topping block reward fees => many years in
the future, based on current ratio of block reward to fees.

What is the more pressing requirement now? A working ³fee market² or a
reliable, useful payment network that scales without falling over in the
next 2-3 years.

On 19/6/15 4:53 pm, "Benjamin" <benjamin.l.cor...@gmail.com> wrote:

>Yeah, but increasing block-size is not a longterm solution. Necessary
>higher fees are a logical consequence of lower subsidies. Bitcoin was
>basically free to use at the beginning because miners got paid with
>new coins at  the expense of those who already hold coins. Eventually
>there needs to be a mechanism which matches supply and demand.
>
>On Fri, Jun 19, 2015 at 11:37 AM, Mike Hearn <m...@plan99.net> wrote:
>>> Or alternatively, fix the reasons why users would have negative
>>> experiences with full blocks
>>
>>
>> It's impossible, Mark. By definition if Bitcoin does not have sufficient
>> capacity for everyone's transactions, some users who were using it will
>>be
>> kicked out to make way for the others. Whether that happens in some
>>kind of
>> stable organised way or (as with the current code) a fairly chaotic way
>> doesn't change the fundamental truth: some users will find their bitcoin
>> savings have become uneconomic to spend.
>>
>> Here's a recent user complaint that provides a preview of coming
>> attractions:
>>
>> 
>>https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/39r3bi/breadwallet_asking_me_to
>>_pay_over_10_network_fee/
>>
>>> Hello, I'm just trying to send my small Sarutobi-tips stash (12,159
>>>bits)
>>> onto a paper wallet. When I try to send it, a window pops up stating
>>> "insufficient funds for bitcoin network fee, reduce payment amount by
>>>1,389
>>> bits?" This would be a fee of $0.32 to send my $2.82, leaving me with
>>>$2.50.
>>
>>
>> These sorts of complaints will get more frequent and more extreme in the
>> coming months. I realise that nobody at Blockstream is  in the position
>>of
>> running an end user facing service, but many of us are .... and we will
>>be
>> the ones that face the full anger of ordinary users as Bitcoin hits the
>> wall.
>>
>> 
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