At 09:51 PM 7/28/01, Dan M. wrote:
> >
> > Nevertheless, I still think that my method is at least *better* than your
> > method. After all, humans are notorious for not properly valuing risks
> > and probabilities. The question I propose, however, forces one to
> > directly the consider the transaction of one's life for a certain number
>of
> > units of value.
> >
>
>Yea, but it is a certain number of units of value that one would not
>receive. Let me give you an example, what is the value of my house? I
>would argue that it is not what I would agree to sell it for if I knew a
>charity of my choice would get the benifits of the sale, while I would be
>left with a mortgage and no house.
>
>It is true that people have truble valuing risk and probability. Heck, they
>have trouble consistantly assigning value. That doesn't make the assessment
>invalid, it just makes it hard to do.
>
>Now the reason I asked:
>
> >>Now, let me ask a question that bears on this. Do you agree that your
>life
> >>is equally valuable as mine?
>
>to which you responded
>
> >
> > Valuable to whom?
> >
> > I agree that your right to life is just as valuable as my own.
> >
> > I can't speak for how much money it would take to convince you to take a
> > suicide pill.
>
> is that I wanted to get back at safety. We can get good estimates of how
>many lives will be saved by a safety measure. We are certainly not willing
>to spend $500 million per life saved, or even $50 million. Yet, we know
>that the life saved can be our own.
>
>Indeed, the reason for this is the actual tradoff between an assured loss of
>the things money can buy and a small increase in the probability of living.
>Lets assume that you do understand probability. (You do, don't you?) So you
>can answer the next question straightforwardly. How much are you willing to
>pay per year to eliminate a 1 in 100,000 per year chance of dying?
To watch for/prepare to deflect possible asteroids coming this way, for
example?
--Ronn! :)
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I always knew that I would see the first man on the Moon.
I never dreamed that I would see the last.
--Dr. Jerry Pournelle
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