RE: Sporting venues Re: nuclear strikes (was: Re: Who did it?)

[Baardwijk, J. van DTO/SLBD/BGM/SVM/SGM]

> -----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
> Van: Julia Thompson [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
> Verzonden: Tuesday, September 18, 2001 5:21 PM
> Aan: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Onderwerp: Sporting venues Re: nuclear strikes (was: Re: Who did it?)

> I heard yesterday that the University of Michigan is requesting that
> the airspace around their stadium be declared a "no fly" zone during
> football games now, for that reason.  I think the seating capacity
> there was quoted as being around 100,000.  I imagine that a number of
> other stadiums will be making similar requests, as well.

I do not believe it would be very useful. It would only give the people in
the stadium a false sense of security.

Scenario: A plane following its assigned flight path is hijacked shortly
before it reaches the point closest to the stadium. When it reaches that
point, the hijackers turn the plane in the direction of the stadium and fly
towards it at maximum speed.

First, Air Traffic Control will have to notice that the plane has changed
course (that should not take more than a minute). Given the recent events,
ATC immediately assumes a hijack and alerts the nearest Air Force Base. This
takes another few minutes. (Meanwhile, the plane is rapidly approaching the
stadium). The Air Force sends a few F-16's to intercept; it will take
several minutes however before the planes actually leave the runway. By the
time the F-16's reach the hijacked plane, they will order it to change its
course and land at the nearest airport.

You will not want to shoot it down just yet, because you can not know for
certain where it is heading. Maybe the hijackers do want to crash it into
the stadium, maybe it is on its way to Cuba and the stadium just happens to
be in the same direction. If it is the former, you will save thousands of
lives if you shoot down the plane. If it is the latter, you kill a few
hundred people who would have had a fairly good chance of survival (released
after landing, or freed after landing by an anti-terrorist unit).

All this, of course, assuming that the hijacked plane has not already
crashed into the stadium. After all, terrorists will not hijack a plane,
then target the stadium, then realize it is in a no-fly zone, and
subsequently abort the attack.

So, you would either have to make that no-fly zone an extremely big one (so
big that it gives you enough time to intercept a plane that enters the
zone), or make it not so big and have figher jets flying around in it during
a football game -- which would make a football game extremely expensive.


Jeroen

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