Ah we are coming together I think. The specifics could be answered statistically with enough data but there is never enough data. Because in a single situation there are too many subtle variables (Jeter had a big date last night and he is a bit uh sluggish). So the manager has to have a core of statistical data to provide for his overall stategy and a feel for how to apply that data in a specific situation. It is that feel that is in part what makes a champion (not just for a year but for many years).
Me: And in some situations that's true, but in many it's not. For example, there is just about no situation in which a sacrifice bunt is a good idea. Those in which one is are definable - basically the bottom of the ninth inning in a game where you're tied or down by one run. _In any other situation_ making a sacrifice bunt actually decreases your probability of winning the game. That's something that the statisticians figured out a long time ago. Who are some managers who are famous for their aversion to sacrifice bunts? Earl Weaver, Davey Johnson, and so on. Not by coincidence, they won a lot. Statistical predictions even have empirical data to verify them, Bob. Players who draw more walks will hit for more power - see, Sammy Sosa or Alfonso Soriano for examples. And that's not even a prediction supported by a lot of data, it's just something that a lot of us believe because of what we've seen in the data. It just works out very well. Teams that don't use sacrifice bunts will score more runs. See every team ever managed by Weaver and Johnson. The ratio of runs scored to runs allowed is an exceptionally accurate predictor of winning percentage. If Brian Cashman says, in essence, I think the sabermetricians are right and he beats the pants off everyone else, don't you think he might be right? When Billy Beane beats the snot out of the rest of the league on a $30M payroll and he says the reason is that he applies statistical techniques to how he manages his team - don't you think it's just possible that there's something to that? If Tony Muser says he doesn't believe in modern techniques like that and his teams get humiliated on an annual basis, doesn't that suggest something too? Gautam
