I saw by the bottom of the post that Eric accepted my additional data. So, I hope he doesn't take the arguments at the top as pejorative, because it certainly isn't meant as such. I was a bit frustrated that he didn't consider all the extra data I obtained...but it was because he hadn't gotten to it yet. :-)
----- Original Message ----- From: "Erik Reuter" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "Brin-L" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Tuesday, January 01, 2002 7:17 PM Subject: Re: Tragedy in Israel > On Wed, Dec 26, 2001 at 09:55:31PM -0600, Dan Minette wrote: > > > Sure, there have been, in history, suicidal attacks that are not > > terrorist attacks. The kamikaze attacks in WWII would be an example > > of this. But, I was talking about actual attacks by Palestinians on > > Israel, in particular the recent ones. Would you care to name one > > suicide attack from this infatal that was consistent with the Geneva > > convention? > > That's not the right question, nor the right person to question. In the > poll, did the people being questioned understand whether they were being > asked about the terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians, or could > the question have been construed as whether they support suicide attacks > in general (for example, attacking Israeli military bases or "settlers" > who are illegally occupying land)? Well, it referred to the actual campaign, as the quote in my post showed...but you seem to accept that after you got to it in my post, so that's cool... What about the suicide bombing operations? Do you see them as a suitable response in the current political conditions or do you oppose them and see them harmful to national interests? One could argue that they didn't know that the bombers hit within Israel proper. However, since an earlier question indicated that most people favored attacking Israel proper, its hard to put forth the idea that they were unaware that Israel was being attacked. > > What is the probability that they know all the tricks necessary to get > an accurate poll of Palestinians? Within +/- 10%, pretty darned good, I'd say. One of the reasons is that there are polls taken by different organizations that have consistent results. One more poll just popped up that helps explain the viewpoint. It is available at http://www.pcpsr.org/survey/polls/2001/p3b.html Some interesting results are: 10-5 Adopt school curriculum in the Palestinian state that recognizes Israel and teaches school children not to demand return of all Palestine to the Palestinians 1. Strongly Support 1.6 2. Support 4.8 3. Oppose 51.0 4. Strongly Oppose 39.7 5. Don't Know 2.8 One sees the concept of teaching the children to accept Israel is opposed by > 90% of the people. Next.... 18. Concerning armed attacks against Israeli targets, I.. 1. Strongly support 30.8 2. Support 51.0 3. Oppose 14.3 4. Strongly oppose 1.4 5. No Opinion /Don't Know 2.5 One sees that over 80% agree with attacking Israeli targets. That doesn't refer specifically to the suicide bombings, but provides a backdrop for the following questions and answers: 22. The war against terrorism has recently become a salient issue. I will read you now a list of events. To what extent do you agree or disagree to define these events as terrorist events? (For brevity, I'll only include a few events) 22-5 The killing of 21 Israeli youths by a Palestinian who exploded himself at the Dolphinarium night club in Tel Aviv 1. Strongly Agree 6.1 2. Agree 9.1 3. Disagree 47.1 4. Strongly Disagree 35.2 5. No opinion/ Don't Know 2.5 Only about 15% of the Palestinians surveyed thought this attack was terrorism, and about 82% said it wasn't. But, in response to another question, we see: 22-7 The assassination of Abu Ali Mustafa, head of the PFLP by Israel 1. Strongly Agree 75.8 2. Agree 16.9 3. Disagree 3.5 4. Strongly Disagree 2.9 5. No opinion/ Don't Know 1.0 About 90% consider that terrorism. And, they know that the world differs with them. So, it seems to me that these poll results are consistent with the results given by another Palestinian organization. Also, it seems that this group is not just fly by night. Looking at http://www.pcpsr.org/about/about.html you see that they have a reasonable sounding group of folks for doing an accurate survey. Even if you assume that the AP is associated with one of these two groups, we have at least two independent surveys that give results that are consistent with the vast majority of Palestinians assuming that the suicide bombings are acceptable. One other interesting point is a poll they took in Israel at 16) If a Palestinian-Israeli peace agreement is reached, what do you think would be its impact on the Israeli economy? 1) Very beneficial 52.6 2) Somewhat beneficial 32.3 3) No impact 8.9 4) Somewhat harmful 2.9 5) Very harmful 3.2 These results which puts Israel in a good light seems to lessen the chances of bias, since any bias would be against Israel. >Pollsters trained in the US or UK probably do a good job (I'll accept your +/- 10%) in their locations of > expertise. But are the pollsters out of their element in Palestine? I > have no way to know without more information, which was not provided. > Well, 10% in the US is a terrible result. Good pollsters got the US election to within 2%. Decent ones within 5%. > I'll wager that your +/- 10% intuitive number was largely developed from > US polls. Extrapolating to a quite different situation is always an > uncertain thing. But, the additional data that I give reinforces the results. Different wordings, different questions, results that are consistent with the other polls. > To me, this is an absurd analogy. It sounds to me like you place a low > importance upon this "decision", by equating it with delivering a few > tools. Well, the performance of the tools affected a decision on a 40 million dollar contract for the company. I had a strong feeling that my job and the jobs of many in the company were riding on that decision. I felt the pressure. Certainly it was less pressure than a physician who must make an immediate decision based on inadequate data feels. > > How did this get to be a competition? Anyway, you win. You are the data > king! Thanks. It wasn't just you, it was number of folks who question my figures without providing figures of their own. > Much better, truly worth of the Data King. If you had posted this link > in the first place, I don't think I would have argued with you at all. > > The methodology is explained in detail, and is quite convincing. It > answers almost all of the questions I asked above about the previous > poll you referenced. > Thanks. > The only change I would like to see would be a more direct question > about whether they support killing unarmed "non-settler" civilians, It appears that the labeling of the killing of the teenagers in Israel as non-terrorist answers that question. > and maybe a couple questions investigating whether people were > thinking through the consequences of their responses, or were just > "wishing". (You will probably get very different answers to "would you > like to have a million dollars?" and "What would you be willing to do or > have done to you in order to get a million dollars?") The question I'd like to answer is how dependant the responses are on the false history taught in Palestinian schools. Dan M.
