----- Original Message -----
From: "The Fool" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Brin_L (Brin-L)" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Wednesday, January 02, 2002 9:16 AM
Subject: BUCHANAN DECLARES: DEATH OF THE WEST
>
> . By 2050...One third of Europe's people will be over 60, and one-in-ten
over 80.

This is a real interesting number to me, and I am happy to be on the other
side of the ocean on this.  The replacement rate for fertility is 2.11.
Europe, on the whole, has a fertility rate of 1.5.  That means, in general,
that each new generation numbers only 71% of the previous generation. That's
where the 1/3rd over 60 comes from.

The problem in Germany is even greater, with a fertility rate of 1.3.  With
that rate, each generation is only 60% of the previous generation's size.
They will not be able to afford the generous pension plans.  What will be
really hard for them is the fact that they see nationality as something you
are born as, not a matter of choice.  Here in the States, Hispanics,
Asian-Americans, blacks, Euro-Americans, are all equally American.  Gautam
probably has a better chance of being president than I do. :-) That's not
true in Germany...or in most of Europe as far as I can tell.

Dan M.

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