----- Original Message ----- From: "Kevin Tarr" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Friday, November 15, 2002 6:03 PM Subject: Re: Colin Powell President
> > > > Kevin T. > > > *Would he win the state races, the primaries? I don't think even at state > > > levels there would be too much obvious racism. Unfortunately race is an > > > issue in the backs of people's minds. A small percentage of the populous, > > > and even less of eligible voters but still there. But I think > >specifically > > > for Powell this wouldn't matter as much. > > > >Well, that's been falsified experimentally just this year in Texas. Ron > >Kirk, who was a black moderate Democrat, got a record low % of white votes > >in Harris county for a senate election, running against a fairly obscure > >Republican candidate. > > > >In other words, he got fewer white votes than did a Democrat who was far to > >the left of him running against well known and incumbent US Senators. > > > >Being black is a net negative. How else can you explain the low numbers of > >blacks in the Senate? > > > >Dan M. > > I was trying to be careful in my words. Would Texas be the same as > Washington, Iowa, or Delaware? IMHO, Texas is less racist than those states. >Why would the former mayor of Dallas be well known in Houston? He was at least as well known as his opponent. I live in the Houston area, so I'm reporting from personal experience. >What are the percentages of minorities in the congress? > (No need for real answer) There isn't a 50-50 split male/female is there? > Is being a woman a net negative? Yes, but the source of that is more debateable. To first order, in order to be a sucessful big time politician, your family has to be a distant second to your career. Historically, women have not had these priorities as much as men have. I think that's more important now than prejudices. There isn't a big drop in male votes for female candidates. > Does one county prove a trend? Is Harris County mostly dem? What about the > other counties? In fact: what are these 'record low' numbers based on, > polling data? Bah. (please don't flame me, I'm just making fun) Well, I am puzzled by your understanding of flames. Making fun of the points of others is not flaming, but using numbers is. :-) I quote Harris county because I live here, but its fairly well known across the country. Even moderate blacks lose about 25% of the white vote that a white of the same persuasion gets. All you have to do is check the voting in precincts that are predominantly white. Now, in the general election, the fact that Powell could get a lot of Democratic cross over votes would probably counter that. But, in the Republican primaries, it would be too high of a wall to climb. That was the prevelant wisdom at the time. He is a real moderate too; as is Kirk. Kirk got support from bidness leaders and law enforcement groups that rarely support Democrats. Its not that he lost; that's very understandable. Its that he got fewer white votes than the opponents of Graham and Hutchenson. > And I was trying to make a point of (black + repub) > (black + dem) in > white voters minds. People would turn out in droves to vote against Jesse > Jackson. Not saying Ron Kirk is anywhere near Jesse Jackson. In the general election, that's valid. But, in the Republican primary, that wouldn't matter. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
