----- Original Message -----
From: "Alberto Monteiro" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Saturday, December 28, 2002 6:57 AM
Subject: Re: N Korea threatens to 'destroy world'
>
> Dan Minette wrote:
> >
> >4) War with Iraq can be fought quickly, with relatively few casualties.
> >War with N. Korea will be a mess, with many civilian casualties. The N.
> >Korean army is in much better shape than the army of Iraq.
> >
> What is the evidence of this?
Well, the Iraqi army is in far worse shape than it was 10 years ago. It was
not able to do a great deal to rebuild its forces. The North Korean army
is intact, with a larger number of artillery pieces. The
>Iraqi army was thought invincible in 1991,
By whom? Certainly not by the US.
> but what we saw was that an amry whose training is beating civilians
> prefers to flee than to fight when confronting an armed opponent.
If I remember Gautam correctly, they fell apart only after the US won a
number of tank battles. The superiority of the US military was evident
then. Fortunately, a large dessert was a perfect place for that
superiority to come to the fore.
The battle in Korea will be much more difficult because there are
objectives so close to the border. Further, the US only has 32k troops in
Korea, so much of the matchup will be S. Korea vs. N. Korea. It is true
that those 32k are far superior to anything N. Korea has, but still 1
million vs. 32k does affect the outcome. Even so, I don't doubt that, in a
few weeks, the US could destroy the N. Korean army. The real questions
that exist are.
1) Could N. Korea take Seoul before the US arrives in force:
Answer: doubtful, but possible
2) Could N. Korea shell Seoul with tens of thousands of artillery rounds
before the US destroys their forces
Answer: extremely possible
3) Could N. Korea make a credible threat to devastate Tokyo if it was
losing a war:
Answer: probably
The answers to similar questions for Iraq are no, no, no.
Dan M.
_______________________________________________
http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
