> >From what I read, given the present state of the
> sanctions, if we try to
> apply containment to Iraq, they may have a A-bomb or
> two with a medium
> range delivery capacity in 5 years.  If we apply the
> same principals to N.
> Korea, they may have 50 with some delverable by true
> ICBMs to the US West.
> Is that a reasonable assessment?  If so, isn't N.
> Korea more dangerous?
> 
> Dan M.

I think (and I don't necessarily agree with this, I'm
just saying what I think they think) that the
Administration thinks Iraq is more dangerous because
it assesses the rationality of the two states
differently.  Saddam Hussein tried to assassinate
George Bush, after all, and had he succeeded he would
have guaranteed his own destruction.  That's
irrational, and suggests that Iraq would be willing to
risk destruction for fairly trivial ends.  North
Korea, OTOH, they seem to think is rational and thus
can be deterred in a normal fashion, and is thus less
dangerous than Iraq.

I think you (and I) think that North Korea has more
_capabilities_ to be dangerous than Iraq, and they
agree with that (I think).  But they assess North
Korea as being less dangerous because of its
intentions.  I don't know enough about the North
Korean government to be able to assess the quality of
that judgment, so I'm defering to the Administration,
which (hopefully) does, and certainly has more than I
do.

Gautam

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