Erik Reuter wrote: > This is quite shaky reasoning.
Certainly. That doesn't make it unlikely though. Besides, how many solid ideas do you think Saddam ever managed to come up with? :) > Why would Saddam destroy the weapons at all? Insert the obligatory warning about sheer speculation...and here we go: How about he destroyed them because eluding the inspectors turned out to be harder than he had assumed, the pressure from the US/UN was stronger and sustained for longer than he had assumed and he had already stated that he had no WMDs to begin with ? [now that is shaky reasoning at its best - his original claim. He *bought* the weapons and then turned around and denied their exostence to the very people who sold them to him] So he finds himself in a position where he can't suddenly claim to have 'discovered' some weapons within his borders, he doubts his ability to ensure that the inspectors don't stumble across anything that they shouldn't stumble across and he no longer doubts the international will to disarm him, by force if necessary. > He must have perceived some benefit in doing so, something to > outweigh the detriment of losing the ability to use or sell them. The > only reasonable explanations I can think of why he might > destroy the WMD > is that he wanted to get the sanctions lifted or was afraid he would > be attacked again if he did not destroy them. I'd lean towards the latter. I doubt the sanctions bothered him too much - he was doing well enough for himself inspite of them. And there doesn't seem to be any reason to assume a solicitude for the people he claimed to represent. > In either case, after he > secretly destroyed them, why didn't he come up with some vague excuse > for why he kicked the inspectors out Didn't he say something about them spying for the CIA when he kicked them out? > but that they are now > welcome back > and they will be given full cooperation to verify that there exist no > WMD in Iraq? What? After all those defiant speeches, through all those years, about the great Iraqi people fighting against the hegemonistic US, he was to suddenly backtrack and bend over backwards to co-operate with the people who were spying for the enemy? Come on, Erik. :) Saladin re-born, whose manifest destiny is to unite the Arab people against an overwhelmingly strong enemy, can't suddenly stop his defiant blustering and deal rationally with the agents of the enemy. It would have been too drastic and too sudden a change. > Saddam didn't do this -- the only way the > inspectors got in > was from extreme pressure and threat, led by the US. I don't see any other way he could have let them in. He must have been trapped within his original lie. > > If one is willing to consider as likely the notion that he > had already > > chosen to destroy his existing stock, it would not require > a separate > > No, not a likely notion. :) I wonder if we will ever find out what happened to these WMDs. Ritu GCU Mystery Of The Missing WMDs _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
