First, the single news story that explains everything about the 2004 election: http://landing.msn.ancestry.com/famoustree/strange/bushkerry/trees.aspx?html=main&sourceCode=13673
Anyways, predictions? Analytically, I think it will be Bush. The cards seem, very slightly, to be breaking his way. My gut is telling me Kerry, though, on two main grounds: 1. Younger voters are much harder to poll and are breaking for Kerry 2. The Democratic Party's rather impressive machine to deliver fake/double votes in a large number of states seem to be at its peak of effectiveness, with little to no ability to check on voter authenticity in a bunch of states. The traditional Republican counter - creating unreasonably strict voter identification rules that make it difficult for poor and minorities to vote - is so closely monitored this year that I doubt it will be very effective (as it has been in the past - Republicans should stop kidding themselves about Florida in 2000, although Democrats should do the same about several other states). Nonetheless, I can't quantify either of those two factors, and I don't know enough about Bayesian probability to use it to do so, so I'm going to say it will be Bush, but with a very low degree of confidence. With slightly more (but only slightly) I think the Republicans will see very small gains in the House and Senate. Whoever wins (my final prediction) I don't think it will be as close as people think it will be. I think we'll know by Wednesday morning. This with more confidence than my actual pick for the victory. ===== Gautam Mukunda [EMAIL PROTECTED] "Freedom is not free" http://www.mukunda.blogspot.com __________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Check out the new Yahoo! Front Page. www.yahoo.com _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
