Dave Land asked,
Does anyone know why it took so long for officials to start
contraflowing those roads? It must have driven people crazy to
sit for hours in that sweltering heat, looking across the barrier
at all those empty lanes.
Good question. It was done in Louisiana before Hurricane Katrina.
Contraflow doubles evacuation rates.
Dan Minette said,
Traffic was moving as slow as 0.4 mph ...
which suggests that access control might have increased evacuation
rates by more than a factor of two.
All this depends on whether the increase in roadway more than or less
than compensates. If the extra roadway provides more than enough
room, it compensates; if too many people want to evacuate, it fails.
Traffic engineers can tell us the numbers a road can carry.
Besides putting cops at every entry, another way to control the
numbers who try to get on a big road is to specify when people who
live in different parts of the city should attempt to leave. Clearly,
people will only cooperate partially, but segmenting a city helps.
Sociologists who study emergencies can tell us how many they think
will do one thing or another.
Obviously, none of this is easy. That is why exercises are useful
even though no plan works in the event itself.
Fortunately, reports tell me that the Houston roads are now clear.
Moreover, as Julia said
... staging areas [have been] set up near 290 for loading trucks
with emergency supplies and having them ready to go as soon as
they're needed.
which is smart, even if the practice is thousands of years old.
Also, it is good to hear from Robert Seeberger. I am glad you are
with your wife in a hospital. There is probably no better place
locally.
It is one of those strange situations where you are glad for someone
elses misfortune and feel guilty for it, but all the same your
suffering will be diminished. ...
Yes, I sympathize. This is so hard.
Fear can really wear one down ...
So true.
--
Robert J. Chassell
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