--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], "pencimen" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > It's certainly hard to convince people without food that the red- > > footed gnatcatcher's needs are greater than their own. Even if you > > can convince them in the abstract that the extinction of another > > species is a Bad Thing (tm), convincing them in the "real" when > > their priorities are more along the line of survival is something > > else entirely, I'll warrant. > > That may be true but how many low income people in New Orleans do you > think need convincing that there _might_ be a problem?
Well, the problems in New Orleans were not unpredictable. Indeed, as Alberto noted here, I told him about the dangers to New Orleans from a hurricane just a month and a half before Katrina. In fact, New Orleans was and is the only major American City without an office of the American Red Cross - the Red Cross has judged it just too unsafe. And is it any surprise? Most people have forgotten that Katrina *missed* New Orleans, and that it weakened just before landfall - and that in fact, the story in the many hours immediately following Katrina was that New Orleans had been "spared." So, just imagine what a direct hit would have been like. What's amazing, is that despite all the warnings, the City of New Orleans and the State of Louisianna simply did not have adequate plans for evacuation, let alone for emergency response. Its as if the officials of New Orleans and Louisianna believe that because all the middle class people with cars could get out of the City that somehow all the poor people without cars who could not or did not leave simply didn't matter. If there is a lesson here, it is that humans seem bad at dealing with asymetric risks. We ar every bad at coping appropriately with risks that have high cost and long time horizons. We are particular bad at dealing with risks that have long-time horizons when facing risks with short time horizons. As for the connection of Katrina to global warming, I think that advocates of doing something about global warming do themselves no favors by making such arguments. After all, these arguments connecting specific weather incidents to climate change are very vulnerable to being counterpointed by the next unseasonable cold snap or snowstorm. For example, we're having a very quiet hurricane season so far this year - if this trend holds up, will that be any sort of argument that global warming is under control? And if not, then the same must be said for Katrina.... JDG _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
