Dan Minette wrote:
With all due respect, listening to claims by advocacy groups is not the
same as learning.  I know as a fact, from having a relative that has
farmed both corn and soybeans in the same year, that the government
subsidies are and have not been just for one crop.  For example, the
latest form of the subsidies that he has received have been in the form
of holding back
areas of his farm that have the highest risk of erosion from planting. 
This has accelerated the increase in topsoil on his farm.

Second, if we look at sugar cane, we see that it is only grown in the
warmest wettest parts of the US (Hawaii, Florida and Louisiana are
listed, but I think there is still some sugar cane in SE Texas).  The
yields in Fl and La are significantly lower (about 2x per year) because
these fields see occasional light frosts.  Obviously, this is not a
crop for the corn belt.
We cannot, like Brazil, simply cut down more rain forest to plant sugar
cane.

Switchgrass, on paper, is better, but there it requires significant
amounts of energy to turn it into biofuel.  There are conflicting
numbers on this, but they do tend to indicate that producing ethanol
with switchgrass is more energy intensive than it is for corn. 

In 10 years, given the progress in bioengineering, we may be seeing
different economics....or we may not.  I'm for funding this type of
bioengineering, but we won't know the results until they are here.

 
> What gets me is that China is starting to produce cars for their
> burgeoning market.  They should be exploring alternatives to the
> internal combustion engine they could export to western countries.

Why would we buy more expensive cars in the future when we haven't to
date?
China's reliance on coal fired plants, and dirty ones at that, indicate
that
the economics of fossil fuel usage vs. other cleaner technologies. They
 are at the stage in economic development that we were, say, 70 years
ago or
so...when pollution was considered the smell of money.  

OK, I stand corrected.  It seems that cattle ranges and soy beans
replace the rain forest.  But, if ethanol were actually cost effective
to  make and ship, why can't Brazil isn't it competing as at least an 
additive to gas in Europe... which doesn't have the vast undertapped
farmlands of the US?  
The alternative is buying from the Mid-East.   And, didn't you say that
there was a lot of hype in Brazil's use of  biofuels?

 
Yes. And I am in it - saving the world O:-)
Alberto Monteiro the Saint

alberto, how is burning down the rain forest saving the world?

dan, i disagree that listening to advocacy groups is not the same as
learning.  did you see the film?  these are well informed people who
happen to have an agenda.  would you apply the same criticism to
someone who shares your agenda?  the fact that you have a relative that
has farmed is fine, but i did not imply the government subsidizes only
one crop.  The tobacco industry rec'd almost 350 million dollars in
subsidies in 2000; can't make biofuel out of that!~)  you mentioned the
highest risk of erosion from planting,  tobacco is really destructive
to topsoil... 
http://speakout.com/activism/issue_briefs/1245b-1.html

i understand sugar cane is best grown in warm humid climates, which is
why i mentioned switchgrass and hemp.   does hemp  require significant
amounts of energy to turn it into biofuel?  

i agree that bioengineering may change the picture, but are there
hazards?

I wasn't suggesting we buy more expensive cars in the future.  In fact
i assume anything we buy from china would be cut rate.  it's true china
relies on dirty tech with its coal fired plants, but just because they
are at the stage in economic development that we were 70 years ago
doesn't mean that dirty technology is cheaper.  this is the 21st
century and they don't have to go through the same stages if they
choose to invest in advanced technology and skip the intervening
stages.  heck, they are stealing tech as fast as they can...
jon


       
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