> -----Original Message----- > From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On > Behalf Of Doug Pensinger > Sent: Saturday, January 03, 2009 6:56 PM > To: Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion > Subject: Re: Israel to collapse in 25 years? > > Dan M wrote: > > > > > > So, can anyone argue me out of this pessimistic viewpoint? I honestly > hope > > so, even though I'll argue hard for this point....it's one argument I'd > > love > > to lose. > > > Well, note that there has never been the kind of tacit support for Israel > from moderate Arab states such as Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia as there > is > in this particular conflict. The Sunnis are probably more fearful of > Shia/Iranian ascendancy than they are of a stable Jewish state.
The last statement you made is certainly true. The first statement was true when you made it, but it is no longer true. The Arab countries have condemned Israel's incursion into Gaza. Israel needs to, at the very least, minimize the rocket attacks for their actions to be considered successful. There are still 40 rockets/day launched towards Israel since Hamas ended the cease fire. I do not see a quick and easy conclusions to the ground incursion. > I don't know if it will happen, but if the current incursion takes control > of the Gaza/Egypt border and allows wounded Palestinians (that Hamas is > not > allowing to cross) to get to the emergency facilities that have been set > up > there, they might gain a little popular support. Of course the idea is to > weaken Hamas enough so that more moderate factions can take charge. I'm > sure that there are more than a few members of Fatah that aren't too > unhappy > with the idea. I agree with this, but the politics on the ground indicate that Fatah had to use the threat of violence to stop popular demonstrations on the West bank in support of Hamas. On the whole, it appears that the groups that are seen to successfully oppose Israel gain among the Palestinians while those that try to find peace lose, and are considered collaborators. Given the education system, this makes sense....because this is a reasonable position for those who accept the lies taught in the Palestinian schools about the Jews as truths. The real trick is whether Israel can either weaken Hamas so it can be defeated by Al Fatah, or if it can establish effective control of the smuggling of rockets into Gaza in order to stop the attacks. Recent news is not sanguine with respect to the former. Several Al Fatah members have been executed in Gaza for "collaborating with Israel." Others are under house arrest. There is no indication that Al Fatah is gaining in the Gaza, and some evidence that it might be falling back in the West Bank. The second point requires the Israeli army to inflict devastating damage on Hamas's leadership and fighters while minimizing civilian casualties. Unlike normal warfare, Hamas gains when the people it governs are hurt and killed. Thus, they are highly motivated to make sure that civilians (especially children) are killed by Israel. Given the rabbit warren nature of Gaza cities, it will be very hard for Israel to kill Hamas and not have a significant incident of civilian deaths. We are now seeing massive demonstrations in Europe, mostly ethnic based. This puts tremendous pressure on the European governments to support a cease fire that will leave Hamas intact, and able to resume rocket attacks on Israel at will (e.g. wait a couple of weeks or months and then restart the attacks). If these demonstrations increase, my feel is that there is minimal European public support for Israel, and that the general tendency is to support quick solutions that, in succession, will gradually weaken Israel over the next years. For, if rocket attacks become the new norm, I feel that they will increase in sophistication and damage as better Iranian arms are smuggled into Gaza. > In any case, what the nut case running Iran would like to see is world war > 3, and I'm not even sure that he would mind if Iran itself was cauterized > as a result. That's a major fear of mine too. I recall how, in the Iran-Iraq war, Iran sent human wave attacks against Iraq, with hundreds of thousands of minimally armed civilians sent to overwhelm the much better armed Iraqis by sheer numbers. IIRC, children were included in these attacks. If the Grand Ayatollah who really runs the country sees the final battle at the end of time at hand, he might feel called to start it by attacking the Zionistic entity which is controlling the world through its evil actions. Dan M. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
