>Whatever the final outcome Ahmadinejad's position has to have been severely weakened. >As he's a nut case, this is a very good thing.
OK, I'll agree that his position with some factions within the ruling elite has been lowered. The real question, of course, it what is the position of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He backed Ahmadinejad strongly, and issued a clear threat of violence against any protesters. The Revolutionary Guard and the associated paramilitary (brown shirts) appear eager for violence. So, the risk of Ahmadinejad doing something against Iran's interests is probably lower, but I think he was always on a leash. My prediction is that, after a few more demonstrations of a few hundred people get knocked down with scores dead, the struggle will go underground. Thirty years from now, there will significant changes, but before then I think that Iran will have a score or so of nuclear weapons, without even the command and control that Pakistan has over its nukes. Pakistan is looking a bit better now than 2 months ago, but it is still very dangerous. One thing that I read that is very disturbing to me is that it is near impossible to predict the future of Iran, even for those who devoted their life to studying Iran, even for those who are ruling Iran. Once they have the capacity to eliminate Israel in half and hour (probably 5 years from now), I fear that after that, an Ayatollah who wishes to hasten the return of the Mahdi will be come Supreme Ayatollah....or that a faction of the National Guard that does will gain command and control of, say, 3 nuclear missiles....cause that's all it would take to virtually eliminate Israel. Dan M. _______________________________________________ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
