On 6/22/2009 7:36:48 PM, Dan M ([email protected]) wrote: > > > > Things do not look overly promising for the protesters, but if they > manage > > to make it through tomorrow without their heads being cracked Iranian > > public sentiment may swing decisively in their direction. It really > > depends on how hard the Supreme Ayatollah swings back at them. > > > > We should see by morning. > > Well, it's the next day, and I don't see any resolution. I think that > the > splits in the leadership are promising, though small. But.....the best > organized force is the Revolutionary Guard, and they appear to be > fanatical. > I'd guess, if push came to shove, they wouldn't mind killing > thousands to > keep order....and I don't see anyone standing up to them in a fight. > I wouldn't be so quick to judge. Reports from inside Iran say the Guard is split and mostly inactive. The Army is similarly. The police have been ineffective because they won't shoot their own countrymen. That is why most of the violence has been committed by Basiji and Arab imports (such as Hezbollah and some Afghan Taliban with possibly some Russians thrown in according to rumor) Many of the people committing violence are non-Farsi speakers and that is a solid indictment of the gravity of the situation. The Council of Experts is split and the Ayatollahs seem to be waiting for Khamenei to commit an irrevocable fuckup before they move. Many Mullahs are going to the protests themselves and making pronouncements on behalf of the protestors. A Revolutionary Guard General was arrested for refusing to fire on protestors. Rafsanjani's daughter was arrested for attending a protest. The longer this continues the better it gets for the protestors I think. The general trend seems to be favoring them. Amedinajad is pretty much irrelevant ATM. It really hinges on Khamenei and what he does, which I expect will be screwup because he really isn't much more than a hack/wonk in the overall picture and I don't think he is skilled enough to wiggle out of the crack he has gotten himself into.
A national strike is being called (starting today). How that goes will determine the course and success of this revolt. xponent #IranElection Maru rob _______________________________________________ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
