http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/world/10152951.htm
(subscription)
Bloggers charge voter fraud, but evidence supports
results
KERRY, DEMOCRATS DISCOUNT E-RUMORS
By Manuel Roig-Franzia and Dan Keating
Washington Post
MIAMI - The e-mail subject lines couldn't be any
bigger and bolder: ``Another Stolen Election,''
``Presidential election was hacked,'' ``Ohio Fraud.''
Even as Sen. John Kerry's campaign is steadfastly
refusing to challenge the results of the presidential
election, the bloggers and the mortally wounded party
loyalists and the spreadsheet-wielding conspiracy
theorists are filling the Internet with head-turning
allegations.
There is the one about more ballots cast than
registered voters in the big Ohio county anchored by
Cleveland. There are claims that a suspicious number
of Florida counties ended up with Bush vote totals
that were far larger than the number of registered
Republican voters. And then there is the one that
might be the most popular of all: the exit polls that
showed Kerry winning big weren't wrong -- they were
right.
Each of the claims is buoyed by enough statistics and
analysis to sound plausible. In some instances, the
theories are coming from respected sources -- college
engineering professors fascinated by voting
technology, Internet journalists, election reform
activists. Ultimately, none of the most popular
theories holds up to close scrutiny. And the people
who most stand to benefit from the conspiracy theories
-- the Kerry campaign and the Democratic National
Committee -- are not biting.
``At this point the number of irregularities brought
to our attention is not going to change the outcome of
the election,'' said DNC official Jano Cabrera. ``The
simple fact of the matter is that Republicans received
more votes than Democrats, and we're not contesting
this election.''
The Ohio vote-fraud theory appears to stem from the
curious ways of the Cuyahoga County Board of
Elections. During even-numbered years the county's
canvassing board posts vote totals that include the
results from outside the county from congressional
districts that spill over Cuyahoga's borders. The
quirk made it look as if the county had 90,000 more
votes than voters.
Later, the county added a disclaimer to its Web site
in an attempt to explain the numbers.
``It takes me about three times to explain'' why the
fraud allegation is untrue, said Kimberly Bartlett,
community-outreach specialist for the Cuyahoga County
Board of Elections. ``You have to ask them why no top
Democrat is making these charges.''
There also have been reports of more votes counted
than voters in some counties in Florida and North
Carolina. Stephen Ansolabehere of the Caltech-MIT
Voting Technology Project said the preliminary results
do not add up. ``We'll see if there's anything
dramatic or widespread once we see the full
certifications come in,'' he said.
The Florida case is more nuanced than the Ohio voting
battle. Numerous bloggers have noted that President
Bush's vote totals in 47 Florida counties were larger
-- in some cases much larger -- than the number of
registered Republican voters in the same counties. A
widely distributed article on Consortiumnews.com said
the results ``are so statistically stunning that they
border on the unbelievable.''
The article's main numbers are correct. But the
central premise -- that there is something suspicious
about Bush getting more votes than the number of
registered Republicans in rural counties, which use
paper ballots -- may not be suspicious at all.
It does not account for thousands of independents or
for voters who do not list party affiliation. It is
also common for Florida Democrats, particularly the
``Dixiecrats'' in the northern reaches of the state
and the Panhandle, to vote for Republicans, a pattern
that is repeated in much of the Deep South.
The theories on exit polls are even more slippery.
Because the early exit polls that were leaked and
caused so much excitement among Democrats are not
publicly distributed, the criticisms have not been
based on statistics. Many voting experts say the
theory that the exit polls were correct is deeply
flawed because the polls included too many women in
their samples.
The U.S. Justice Department said the allegations of
vote buying and voter-registration fraud were no
different from the pattern of previous elections. But
other sources are documenting huge numbers of
complaints. Verified Voting, a group formed by
Stanford University Professor David L. Dill to assess
electronic voting, has collected 31,000 reports of
election fraud and other problems, but nothing that
would overturn the Nov. 2 outcome.
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