Oh, there are so many holes in this 'prediction' > hitting Earth on April 13, 2029.
Am I missing something here or is Nasa only predicting misses from 2030 onwards??? http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html > 1-in-37 chance (probability of 2.7%) Hmmm, even the cumulative probability over all 8 passes they have calculated is only 1 in 26,000.... Where did slashdot get their figures from??? http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?3.8e-05 <---- BTW, this link can be compromised to make the probability anything you want.... http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?2.7e-2 <---- Now its 1 in 37 just like the story :) http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?9.9e-1 <---- Now I'm buying a ticket on the relevant space flight .... :) On a slightly different note, looking at the following page, there are some asteroids with a much higher chance of hitting earth... Even so, they don't make me want to build/buy a bunker and stock it with food just yet.... http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/ Paul -----Original Message----- From: Angel Stewart [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Tuesday, 28 December 2004 11:59 To: CF-Community Subject: Odds of asteroid hitting earth increases..again. | 2004 MN4 Asteroid Odds Inching Up Again | | from the duck-and-cover dept. | | posted by CmdrTaco on Monday December 27, @14:56 (Space) | | http://science.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=04/12/27/187248 | "The [1]latest update from NASA now gives 2004 MN4 a 1-in-37 chance (probability of 2.7%) of hitting Earth on April 13, 2029. That's a bump up from the 1-in-46 (2.2%) odds given this weekend and almost a 10x increase in probability from the original 1-in-300 odds announced late last week. Interesting times, indeed." -Gel ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Special thanks to the CF Community Suite Silver Sponsor - RUWebby http://www.ruwebby.com Message: http://www.houseoffusion.com/lists.cfm/link=i:5:141016 Archives: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/threads.cfm/5 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/lists.cfm/link=s:5 Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=89.70.5 Donations & Support: http://www.houseoffusion.com/tiny.cfm/54
