Could you parse your sentance:
"Studies are great, but rarely is a study on something this
complicated predictive even to the people it's given too, much less
others."

Its missing something to make it meaningful.

I think I get where you're coming from. This is an old argument that's
been dealt with back in the 70's. One very advanced technique that is
used and covers your objections (ie., the snapshot) is to use a
multiple causal model with time as a predictor variable. My LISREL
manual devotes 2 chapters to this approach, and I barely can follow
the methodology.

Studies are only a snapshot in time, if they use only one assessment.
Most of the ones I'm interested in and have discussed followed
multiple overlapping cohorts through the school system for several
years, such as the NORC studies.

But how is that choice better if it just produces the same scores.
Choice for choice's sake is a waste of time effort and money. Its
simply not cost effective if you get the same results with the current
school system than if you spend  a lot more on a Charter or private
voucher system. All it serves to do is enrich a select group of
people, typically those politically connected with the groups that are
pushing that particular ideology.

larry

On 10/19/05, Gruss Gott <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > Larry wrote:
> > What has not been done is a very hard look at what actually works and
> > then start applying it.
>
> This is exactly why a one-size-fits-all federal policy sucks.  States
> need to be free to experiment with different ideas until the right
> formula is found; likely that formula will also differ between
> localities.  Yet another reason why a fed solution sucks.
>
> As to your studies, I don't buy it.  Studies are great, but rarely is
> a study on something this complicated predictive even to the people
> it's given too, much less others.  A study is a snap shot in time that
> can used as a data point; you'd need decades of others to even begin
> to be predictive.
>
> Further, if the Charter/vouchers systems didn't produce better test
> scores, then they're still better because they offer something the old
> system doesn't: choice.
>
> 

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