But it does not account for the run, a big part of a lot of teams defense. And I would argue that the best metric is still the score. 100% of the teams that have scored more points than their opponent have won. To use any other metric just seems silly to me. Its liek Wade Phillips last year saying after the Cowboy slost to the Giants in the playoffs that the better team lost. Huh? How's that possible?
On Mon, Oct 27, 2008 at 6:37 PM, Won Lee <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I agree with you. But that is why AYPA is the best metric I have seen as > it has the strongest correlation to real results. Last numbers I've seen > is that 70% of the team that wins the AYPA metric is the victor. That 70% > is higher than any other single metric. Granted its only one metric but > if you had to use one, it would be it. > > The beauty of AYPA is that it really measures many things. It measures a > team's OLINE since sack yardage is counted against you, it measures the > ability of the QB to read the defense correctly and take the most yards > out there. It measures the WRs ability to run eroutes catch > > -----Original Message----- > From: Scott Stroz [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > Sent: Monday, October 27, 2008 3:42 PM > To: cf-community > Subject: Re: GIANTS vs cowboys > > I find your criteria for determining who 'deserves' to win a game to be a > little...off. > > Lets say we use your metrics and Team A plays Team B. > > Team B has a tremendous pass defense, but they can't stop the run if it > was > Steven Hawking without his wheelchair. > > Team B comepletely shuts down the passing game, even has negative yardage > on > pass plays taking sacks into account, but Team A runs the ball for 500 yds > and 6 TDs. > > Do you see how your metrics might be a little flawed? > > I would aslo argue that if you average 15 yds per pass play and do not > score > more points than your opponent, then you do not deserve to win. > > The Giants defense palyed very well, with teh exception of 2 big plays > that > both went for TDs). The offense played almsot as well as I expected > against > the #1 defense in the league. But, we still scored 19 points against that > defense and gained mroe yards than any other tema this season. Maybe > Jacobs > wasn't tearing off 10-15 yarders all the time, but he was wearing them > down, > and I think that showed late in the game. > > The O-line did a great job at protecting Eli - I am not even sure if he > ever > even got knocked down. > > Lastly, using a metric that solely depends on one facet of the offense > might > skew your results a bit. > > On Mon, Oct 27, 2008 at 3:25 PM, Won Lee <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > Yes, it is true the team that scores more points deserve to win but how > > they score their points is very important to me. I'm looking for > > repeatable results. > > > > If we just looked at the results the analysis would be simple. My > usually > > stat to look at Passing Yards Per Attempt. Then look at Adjusted > Passing > > Yards per attempt. > > > > The Steelers won the PYA but the Giants won the APYA because APYA > > subtracts sack yardage. > > > > This is high praise for a 2nd year WR that missed most of the first, but > I > > can't remember Steve Smith (the NY version) look so bad. He let some > > balls go through his hand. Lucikly the Giants still had Toomer - > > professional receiver. > > > > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: Charlie Griefer [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Sent: Monday, October 27, 2008 3:11 PM > > To: cf-community > > Subject: Re: GIANTS vs cowboys > > > > On Mon, Oct 27, 2008 at 12:07 PM, Scott Stroz <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > > > > The oddest part of the game is trying to answer, "Who deserved to > win > > > that > > > > game?" > > > > The Giants, were overall, more effective than the Steelers. But the > > > > Steelers absolutely dominated the 3rd quarter. The NY Def really > put > > on > > > > their big boy pants in the 3rd qt just to be able to hang in despite > > > being > > > > on the field for so long. > > > > > > > > The team that scored the most points deserved to win. > > > > > > > I would agree with that. > > > > I remember a few years back after a Giants/Eagles game. I think the > > Giants > > fumbled 5 times (and turned it over all 5, but still won). An Eagles > fan > > posted to the Giants newsgroup that a team that turns the ball over 5 > > times > > doesn't deserve to win. > > > > My response was, "does a team that forces 5 turnovers but still score > > fewer > > points deserve to win?" > > > > One of the few online discussions that I think I actually won. > > > > If a team plays like shit but still comes out with more points, it > > generally > > means that at some point during the game they played well enough to > > overcome > > the parts of the game where they played like shit. > > > > -- > > I have failed as much as I have succeeded. But I love my life. I love my > > wife. And I wish you my kind of success. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Adobe® ColdFusion® 8 software 8 is the most important and dramatic release to date Get the Free Trial http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;207172674;29440083;f Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:276935 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=11502.10531.5
