> gg wrote:
> So how come people like Jobs have the Midas touch?  lots of reasons,
> but one is a well developed sense of "gut".
>

The pathology of the risk, btw, can be viewed with Bernie Madoff.

You either naturally have a great gut or you develop it (10,000 hours
of effort as Gladwell implies).  Pretty soon you're making all kinds
of great calls.  So why keep verifying with data?  waste of time since
it just confirms what you already know: you're right.  and people long
ago stopped challenging you.  and those no-men that DO occasionally
drop by are annoying so dump them too.  next thing you know you're
evil.

Best known prevention for over-confidence - if you're honest with
yourself - is marriage

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